Comment by II2II
1 month ago
> Gambling refers to taking on risk for the feeling it brings.
Is there much of a difference when it comes to placing bets on the news?
To play off the article's opening example: investing in mineral exploration in Greenland, with an American invasion opening up opportunities for resource extraction, would be taking a risk with an unknown payout due to imperfect information. That is to say, it is taking a risk to build a business. A business where the payout may exceed what is going in. Betting on the news is just an exchange of money, with the intermediary taking a cut. Risks are being taken, but no value is being created. It is all about emotional involvement.
Investing in a business is also a bet. The capital you provide is a known quantity, you risk it for an uncertain outcome (the future value of the shares).
If your informational edge is just America invading Greenland, let's say you know that for sure. Then you could invest in the business, but you might actually be diluting your edge if you don't know more than the market does about the fundamentals of the business. The business could already have a lot of debt, and unable to get more to finance an expansion into Greenland. It would be less risky in that instance to just bet on the invasion, since that is where your edge is.