Comment by smeej

It's only a huge payout if you have a huge amount of money. If you have $1k to put in, you get $2k out. Who's risking getting caught and potentially facing the death penalty for $1k in profit?

If someone already has significant money backing, and especially if that person already has some other specific reason to want you dead, I can see how it might be added incentive, but even so, you also now have to tip your hand. To buy in hard, you have to send a signal saying you have reason to be confident I'm about to die. You're basically shooting yourself in the foot right before trying to shoot me in the head.

Plus, it's not like the markets are anonymous. Polymarket isn't trading with Monero. You're not just tipping your hand ahead of time. You're pointing the investigators right at yourself.

I just don't see how the calculations end up falling in favor of killing somebody if you weren't already planning to do so.