Comment by d--b

The option market is an insurance market.

Most people buy low-strike puts as insurance against catastrophic market events.

Since catastrophic crises are rare, the price of these puts is quite low. But since many people fear a crisis, the price is very inflated over the actual probabilites. Which is why there are lots of people selling those puts as a business. These guys will bite the dust in case of a major crisis, but will make a ton if the market stays afloat.

Realistically, the current US government is so obsessed with its image that it will do everything to avoid a market crash during its term. The president has been pushing for lower rates for a while, and he's likely going to succeed in removing the head of the Fed and do just that. Lowering interest rates is just another way of pumping investment.

NVidia is definitely not going below $100 in 2026.