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Comment by pjc50

5 hours ago

Everyone seems to have forgotten the independent French nuclear deterrent.

I should probably put an outside bet on the next country to get the Bomb being Poland, maybe by 2050. They've only just started building a civilian reactor, but weapons would make strategic sense for them.

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pjc50

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ben_w  4 hours ago

I would say the next country is likely much sooner than 2050, because 24 years is longer than the timelines for China, for India and Pakistan given when they became independent even assuming they started on that immediately, I think for Israel but it's hard to be sure given the secrecy, South Africa arguably but IIRC they didn't complete it, and obviously the USSR, USA, France, and the UK.

  • ifwinterco  4 hours ago

    Yep at the end of the day, this is 1940s/50s technology. It's complicated but not that complicated

viking123  5 hours ago

I remember back when Poland was joining NATO, they basically said that we want in NATO or we will build our own nuke.

Not sure if Trump understands that he is playing quite a dangerous game in terms of nuclear proliferation because if the US deterrent goes away, the small countries will start thinking about it.