Comment by fc417fc802
13 hours ago
> This feels like one of those tropes that keeps showing up whenever new tech comes out.
And this itself is another tired trope. Just because you can pattern match and observe that things repeatedly went a certain way in the past, doesn't mean that all future applications of said pattern will play out the same way. On occasion entire industries have been obliterated without a trace by technological advancement.
We can also see that there must be some upper ceiling on what humans in general are capable of - hit that and no new jobs will be created because humans simply won't be capable of the new tasks. (Unless we fuse with the machines or genetically engineer our brains or etc but I'm choosing to treat those eventualities as out of scope.)
Give me one aspect in which that has actually happened? I'm wracking my brains but can't think of one. We are a weird species in that even if we could replace ourselves our fascination with ourselves means that we don't ever do it. Cars and bicycles have replaced our ability to travel at great and small distances and yet we still have track events culminating in the olympics.
Sure, things continue to persist as a hobby, a curiosity, a bespoke luxury, or the like. But that's not at all the same thing as an industry. Only the latter is relevant if we're talking about the economy and employment prospects and making a living and such.
It's a bit tricky to come up with concrete examples on the spot, in particular because drawing a line around a given industry or type of work is largely subjective. I could point to blacksmithing and someone could object that we still have metalworkers. But we don't have individual craftsmen hammering out pieces anymore. Someone might still object that an individual babysitting a CNC machine is analogous but somehow it feels materially different to me.
Leather workers are another likely example. To my mind that's materially different from a seamstress, a job that itself has had large parts of the tasks automated.
Horses might be a good example. Buggies and carriages replaced by the engine. Most of the transportation counterparts still exist but I don't think mechanics are really a valid counterpart to horse tenders and all the (historic) economic activity associated with that. Sure a few rich people keep race horses but that's the sort of luxury I was referring to above. The number of related job positions is a tiny fraction of what it was historically and exists almost solely for the purpose of entertaining rich people.
Historically the skill floor only crept up at a fairly slow rate so the vast majority of those displaced found new sectors to work in. But the rate of increase appears to have picked up to an almost unbelievable clip (we're literally in the midst of redefining the roles of software developers of all things, one of the highest skilled "bulk" jobs out there). It should be obvious that if things keep up the way they've been going then we're going to hit a ceiling for humans as a species not so long from now.