Adoption of EVs tied to real-world reductions in air pollution: study

7 hours ago (keck.usc.edu)

No surprises.

No matter how we look at it, EVs are much friendlier and safer to the environment. Some people argue the source of electricty can be contested against because that involves fossil fuel burning again, but in today's world we are rapidly moving away from it and towards nuclear/hydel/wind methods for generating power.

I hope ICE cars completely become a thing of the past in the next couple of decades to come.

  • The number of ICE cars I get stuck behind from time to time that just REEK is amazing. I’m in a decently well off area too.

    Some putting off soot clouds, white smoke, nothing visible but clearly not doing complete combustion. Sometimes I wonder if half the cylinders are even working.

    I’ve heard one car like that is the equivalent of a surprisingly large number of modern ICE cars is in good shape.

    I love EVs. I’ve had one for 5 years now, and I’m glad they help. But I think the “are new EVs worse than new ICE” discussions so often miss a fact.

    The pollution from ICE isn’t just from very modern well tuned vehicles, things vary wildly. But all EVs use the same power supply (assuming local grid only), so no individual vehicles put off 10x the pollution per kWh.

    • Speaking of smells....

      One good thing about driving an EV is that weird oil or hot coolant smells are from someone else's car (and not a problem with your car)

      (although yes technically many EVs have coolant loops)

    • Even modern cars pollute a lot (especially in winter) because you need a certain temperature for the cats to start working. On short city trips it happens frequently that you never reach proper operating temperatures.

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    • I'd say that putting off sooth clouds is a way to sequester carbon (which obviously failed to burn). Such over-enriched fuel mixes must generate much more CO though, and I wonder if those who "tune" their cars like so take care about the catalytic converter :(

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    • Many car enthusiasts remove the catalytic converter for a combination of additional power and/or better sound. It has a massive impact on emissions and what you might be smelling is hydrogen sulfide which is normally converted to sulfur dioxide which is orderless.

      I should note the power increase may not have a major impact on newer cars where the cat has been optimized to reduce it's negative power impact.

      Infact a popular tuner company, APR, that provides flashes tested the recent Volkswagen GTI and R generation with their most common tune and determined that with their tune removing the cat had a nominal impact.

      *Basically they can bring the cars power as high as the OEM internals can handle reliably while keeping the cat. There are cars where it still has some impact and of course, different from power ,"straight piping" a car can offer a subjective sound change.

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    • tragically, because of efficiency standards, modern engines are known to burn oil .

      Otherwise you may be smelling cars who have had the cats stolen.

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    • Besides the crap they pump into the air, they also excrete gunk onto the road. It’s so primitive.

  • Even if the electricity source would burn similar fuel, just the fact that you don't pullote right in the middle of population centers makes a huge difference. In reality, it's not only that, but _also_ that they use cleaner methods of energy production.

  • The surprising part to me is that there are now enough EVs to make a measurable difference, since I kept thinking they are still relatively rare. The linked study has this piece of data:

        From 2019 to 2023, ZEVs increased from 2.0% (559943 of 28237734) to 5.1% (1460818 of 28498496).
    

    So 1 out of 20 cars in California is an EV.

  • Even if the fossil fuel argument at the source was/is valid, it's infinitely more efficient to do it at the source than in a car. You can extract far more energy and do better to mitigate byproducts.

  • That's framing the topic completely out of the issue with global impacts of humanity on ecosystemic sustainability, including biodiversity.

    Less commut and more collective transportation is going to be far more significant in term of global impact, whatever the engine type.

  • I just hope "dumb" EV's become a thing soon. I cannot and will not own a smart car any more I want to own a smart TV or smart fridge or smart toaster.

  • Even if you power a typical EV from 100% coal, it pencils out as about equivalent to a late model Prius. And any improvements in the energy mix take it further.

    • I don't think many people really understand how awful automobile-scale internal combustion engines are at efficiency. The only reason they work at all is thanks to the absurd energy density of the fuels they burn.

  • We are about 2-3x battery capacity to never look back at ICE vehicles ever again. That or 5 min to 80% charge times with current capacity.

    • The current generation of Lucid, BMW, etc. are 400+ mile vehicles.

      You think we need 800-1200 mile batteries?

      As for charge speed, the twice a year someone needs more than 400 miles isn't as significant in real world EV usage...

      I plug in on a dopey 1.3kW (~115V, ~12A) outlet and my car is at 80% charge in the morning. For commuting, a 5pm to 7am charge is ample for most people living ordinary lives.

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  • > No surprises.

    What about all the resources and people used to develop the cars?

    • Six months break even and then it’s more carbon friendly than an ICE for the rest of its working lifetime

    • It’s probably still more net efficient in the long run. Besides, the main advantage EVs bring isn’t being more environmentally friendly. The main advantage is that it allows a nation to have more flexibility with its energy sources. i.e. an EV can run on anything that can generate electricity like coal or natural gas, while ICE cars mostly only run on gasoline.

  • > Some people argue the source of electricty can be contested against because that involves fossil fuel burning again

    I would argue that this provides us the possibility of energy flexibility, which is a good thing given the current global geopolitical situation

i moved to beijing in 2015.. and i have to buy a air purifier, prepare masks for winter. pepople talks about air polutions so much, it feels like we are struggle, not living a life. i remember one day, it was so bad, i have to wear gas mask to go outisde, i know it's rare, and people are staring, but yes, its that hard.

it's 2026 now, you barely see bad days in Beijing, most people wear mask only for the flu, not for the air pollutions. basically its only a few days in winter. and just wait for the wind, it all goes away.

shutdown factory and move them to other places sure helps, but nobody will deny that adopt ev contributes a lot. i remeber the sales data for 2024 is nearly 45%+ of new cars are EV, and 2025 is 51.8%. i'm sure the number will go up and reach nearly 100%.

  • Both ICE and EV cars require a support infrastructure. As sales trends change, so the emphasis on support infrastructure changes, and that accelerates the trend.

    For example EVs depend on charging, so we're seeing more public charge points, as well as more home chargers, work chargers and so on.

    ICE depends on gas stations (which is the tip of the gasoline distribution industry.) It also depends on ICE mechanics. As demand for those services drop off, so they'll become harder to find. (To be clear, that's not happening soon, there are a LOT of ICE cars out there...)

    But 50 years from now most of that ICE infrastructure will have disappeared.

  • Factories were one source, but in-home coal furnaces were a gigantic pollutant source in aggregate. I read articles about villagers banned from this who couldn't afford cleaner heat sources. Is that still the case?

    • Yes. This issue was exposed by netizens on social media and has been widely reported by numerous media. The local government has now lowered natural gas prices and increased subsidies. but i think the cost is still likely higher than burning coal. Hopefully they will continue to improve this situation.

I want the future to focus more on the brakes and tire dust, and the increase in cancers and other problems by people who live near busy roads or highways experience. Nobody studies this, and combustion or battery, everyone is affected by it. Even playgrounds are filled with shredded tires, which borders on biohazard.

  • It gets studied. EVs are often heavier, which is worse for tire wear, but use regenerative braking, which is better for brake dust.

    Overall, EVs are likely a net win on the combination of these two things, and a big win on exhaust emissions, but it would be nice if we could shift to lighter and smaller vehicles and increase the mix of non-cars such as e-bikes and mass transit.

    Source: https://www.eiturbanmobility.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/4...

    • This will be met with consternation, not appreciation. The people who comment about brake dust in EV topics are the people who complain about birds when talking about windmills.

      We know it is disingenuous because no one cares about this when discussing overweight trucks and SUVs. Good news about a reduction in pollution from EVs? Can't have that. It's like the "At what price" meme around headlines about China.

      Going forward, I will downvote any comment about "brake pollution" and "tire pollution" that does not begin with - specifically - "This is a bigger issue for large, gas-powered trucks and SUVs", and invite you all to do so to. The association of these shitty comments with EV topics is as organic as lighter fluid.

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    • Plug-in hybrids are a wonderful middle point on the Pareto frontier.

      Wikipedia lists the 3rd-gen Prius Prime at roughly 3,500 pounds curb weight, and the Tesla Model Y at 4,100-4,600 pounds, I assume depending on the battery it's equipped with.

      The Prius Prime has 40+ miles of all-electric range, and it can reach highway speeds with the gas engine off. So your day-to-day driving is all electric, then you still have an engine for harsh winter days, power outages, and you have 600 miles EPA range on gas for sudden road trips.

      People are really sleeping on hybrids. Even a used non-plug-in Prius will get 50 city and 50 highway MPG. No gas sedan can do that.

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    • > but use regenerative braking, which is better for brake dust

      Which unfortunately also increases tire wear from regen braking during periods when an ICE vehicle would be coasting without braking.

      EVs are much (much much) better for CO2, much better for brake dust, and much worse for tire dust.

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  • The best solution is to build walking or biking environments.

    This was discussed before: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43672779

    (saving a click)

    We need to start taxing vehicles based on the damage they are responsible for. The 4th Power Law is a principle in road engineering that states that the damage a vehicle causes to a road surface is proportional to the fourth power of its axle load. This means that even small increases in axle load can cause exponentially greater damage to the road.

    A Prius causes about 50,000 times more damage than a bicycle.

    A truck causes 16 billion times more damage than a bicycle.

    A truck causes 31,000 times more damage than a Prius.

    The solution is to tax trucks 31,000 times more than cars. Improve walking/biking/trains/public transportation. Private cars should be a luxury which is made a necessity with zoning laws.

    • Walking and biking environments result in ghettoes, since you become essentially tied to one spot. Biking is _especially_ bad, a bike lane network is a kiss of death for social mobility.

      Buses suck (for the reason you gave), and lightweight EVs are the best option.

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  • > Nobody studies this

    > Even playgrounds are filled with shredded tires, which borders on biohazard.

    They don't study it, but you're worried about it? I'm curious to know why these things in particular (brake dust and rubber tires) are on the radar.

    (And a quick search shows that people do study this.)

Anyone know how far off economical EV motorcycles are? They'll be game-changers for many south east asian cities where traffic is 90% motorcycles, which seem to pollute as much (/more ?) than cars.

Yeah, this kind or Validate my own Beliefs that EV won't solve the fossil fuel burning. But they can at least make energy used by vehicle independent of the source used to generate the energy. Basically, the government and private sector can switch to renewable energy at some point even if they are using Fossil fuels today.

Anyone can argue ICE vs EV all night long but there's only 1 metric I care about, in favor of EV:

When I am going to take my son to school, he doesn't have to smell the gas and the fumes from the exhaust in the garage.

  • I did daily (old station wagon in the rear facing seat), as well as school buses. Kindof liked the smell in moderation as a kid.

    Still in favor of EVs, just a curiosity that this is so negative for you.

    • I suspect OP is considering health effects, not enjoyment.

      Plenty of people like cigarettes and opium too, that doesn't mean you want your kid exposed to the smoke.

  • Most of the exhaust fumes your son smells near school is going to come from other people's cars though.

  • How long are you running the car in your garage? A minute of idling isn't going to cause any problems.

You can already tell how much of a difference it makes in a city. Visiting Boracay after visiting other philipin island is heaven. I heard some Chinese cities are basically just EV, I can’t imagine how much nicer it could be to walk through New York without all that noise pollution

This study is about air quality in neighborhoods. So it would show the same thing even if EVs just moved pollution from where people use their cars to where power plants get placed, because that's not the question it's addressing.

  • People live in neighborhoods.

    Even if the pollution is identical, moving it from where everyone lives and works over to more isolated areas where power plants are would still be a big benefit.

    We know EVs are cleaner than that. And when the pollution is centralized in one power plant it’s also more economically feasible to apply filtration or particle capture isn’t it?

  • Even if all the electricity for EVs came from a centralized coal plant (it doesn't) it would be better than using combustion in individual vehicles. Centralized pollution in one area is better than attempting to mitigate diffuse pollution everywhere.

    • Coal power plants are also massively more efficient than ICE cars. They can run consistently at their optimum rpm rather than start stop usage.

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  • OK but we already know that EVs don't just move pollution around.

    • AIUI there are still disagreements about how to calculate that exactly. This study doesn't (and doesn't try to) provide any input towards settling that.

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Having spent a significant amount of time in Bangkok - the city center (and many urban hubs) is an amazing walkable place with pedestrian walkways suspended above major roads, lots of frequent public transit (metro, skytrain) that honestly makes my home city of Sydney feel like a developing country.

The only downside is that traffic creates a lot of pollution, and the engine noise (not honking, there's very little of that) is so bad that you need to yell to a person standing next to you to have a conversation.

As a visitor, I can't claim to know how to fix the problems facing locals, however I can't help but feel that urban centers would be 1000x better with mass adoption of EVs (bikes, cars). I have seen a spike in the number of Chinese EVs across the city - however I'm aware that economic pressures prevent mass adoption by the majority of the road-users

  • To me, Bangkok feels very much like a developing country.

    If you go to Chinese cities, the EV adoption has incredible positive effects to the vibe, though. Shanghai’s French concession is so quiet and peaceful now that most cars are EVs.

    • Try walking around Newtown in Sydney haha. "Charming" multi-million dollar "victorian-style" shanties with public transit that are a 30 minute walk away and break down every few days.

      I think tier 1 Chinese cities are in a league of their own though. It's a shame it's so difficult to stay there for a prolonged period of time as a foreigner.

      Thailand strikes a good balance of accessibility and development - that said I certainly agree that there are noticeable signs of it being a developing country. Still better than Sydney on balance though.

    • Those cities used to be filled with smokey two-stroke motorbikes and mopeds. One of those is worse than a dozen of normal cars, to say nothing of EVs.

  • Western countries will never match the new East Asian cities. All cities decay as the residents begin to oppose change. All residents begin to oppose change as they age and become wealthier. So whatever you become before the population gets rich is what you will remain.

    There will be no new fast subway in San Francisco and there will be no maglev in NYC. There will be no autonomous buses in Sydney and London will be entirely devoid of skyways.

    This is the nature of growth. One grows then dies as one fossilizes. The next one grows past but no one will ever reinvent themselves.

    This is why death is crucial to improvement.

    • That doesn't make much sense to me. HK added transit long after it was a big city. Tokyo added transit. Heck, all the cities of Europe started long before transit became a thing and then added it later.

      I agree it seems hard in NYC, SF, etc but other cities have added transit

I have got 15kw solar and EV, barely pay more than 50 bucks a months and that too mostly consists of daily supply charges.

Hmmm. Do we have to do a study of that? The AQI around LHR was 3 when I went there last year. Then realized all gas cars are banned at the airport.

  • What's the reasoning for banning the cars specifically at an airport? Don't the airplanes burn way more fuel?

    • Aircraft burn more fuel, but they do so far from where people are, and Jet A burns more cleanly than gasoline from a particulate perspective.

      From an air pollution perspective you are much better off a half mile from 10 jets taking off, than you are surrounded by a hundred idling gasoline cars.

Something that needs to be pointed out, especially for those who want to push back against findings like this and essentially defend ICE vehicles:

Really step back and imagine a world where the modern EV [1] was first to market and a gasoline combustion engine was second.

Who would actually decide to switch from a modern EV to gasoline on purpose of their own choice?

The downsides of gasoline cars are actually pretty crazy: complicated engines and transmissions with heavy maintenance schedules, emissions, more NVH, worse interior space and packaging, need to wait for HVAC rather than it being ready ahead of time, need to go to a special gas station to add fuel, worse/slower performance.

You would have this laundry list of downsides and your only potential plus sides are faster fueling on road trips over 4 hours long, lower curb weight, and lower cost.

And those three minor down sides are very likely to be resolved sometime within the next 10-20 years.

[1] Not talking about Baker Electric type of stuff that was quickly surpassed by internal combustion of its day

  • I think the problem with this hypothetical is that technology was the main constraint back in 1900, not marketing.

    Battery technology was significantly much worse. Lithium batteries were only discovered in the ‘70s.

    Gas engines were far more polluting but way less complex in 1910.

  • Kind of funny anecdote, as a bit of a car enthusiast.

    I drive a Polestar 2, and someone asked if it was my favorite car I've owned. And I said, no that's a Mazda 3 hatchback... 6-speed manual. Lovely vehicle to drive. Economical, but luxurious for the price. Very practical, too.

    But... if you asked me if I'd go from the Polestar 2 back to the Mazda 3? I'd say no. I'll keep the electric. Of course it's not a fair comparison... one had an MSRP of $27k and the other $67k. One has 186HP and the other 476HP (and all-wheel drive).

    One had a lot of routine maintenance of the engine, while the other has needed wiper blades and tires. And one requires standing outside in 10° F days like today pumping gas, while the other one is charging in my garage (and warms up the cabin from the press of a button on my phone.)

    The Mazda 3 was more of a driver's car, and if I had bought either new, it would be a very different equation. (I bought the 3 w/ 8K miles on it for $20k; I bought the Polestar w/ 20K miles on it for $29K.) The Mazda 3 has a vastly better interface - better auto-dimming headlights, tons of buttons for climate, stereo, etc.

    But the Polestar 2 is the one I would rather be driving... for now. (I just hope more "driver's car" electric options come to our shores.)

  • > Who would actually decide to switch from a modern EV to gasoline on purpose of their own choice?

    I travel monthly through rural parts of the US where EVs really don't make sense. I get the most people on HN live in suburbs/cities, but there's a lot of stuff that happens in the rural parts of the country that absolutely demands ICE vehicles. Yes the population of people out there is much smaller, but if you've ever spent serious times in these parts of the country you'd realize petroleum runs everything.

    Even in a world where electric vehicles came first this would still be the case.

But don’t they cause higher pm2.5 and pm10 pollution from braking due to the fact that EVs are heavier than vehicles powered by internal combustion ?

  • Maybe if they used their brakes all the time, but they don't. (Regen braking uses no brakes). That's why EVs, while heaver, require fewer brake pad replacements than ICE cars.

  • 1 pedal braking means evs often dont need new brake pads for 150K miles

    One problem they are experiencing is rust and glazing on the pads from disuse.

    They are heavier than the equivalent sized ICE so have more tire wear, but dont have to be that large in an absolute sense. Most are large luxury cars.

    • You’re right but one pedal drive is the wrong term. Regen braking is what you’re thinking of.

      One pedal drive can still use the brake pads, regen braking is what saves brake usage regardless of one pedal drive being on or not.

  • I'm no EV expert, but I almost never use my EV's brakes — it mostly brakes using regenerative braking.

I was out skating today. Everyone was having a fun time until a diesel truck simply drove down the nearby road. It stunk up and polluted the frozen lake air for a solid few minutes. I hate diesel trucks with a passion and if I live long enough to see it happen, I will celebrate the day they become defunct. Tesla's EV trucks need to deal the same hard kick to diesel trucks that they did to cars.

  • Ev trucks have already reached 50%+ sales in China this year so diesel truck will be gone soon but unlikely to be Tesla trucks though.

  • yeah, its an interesting analogy with smokers and the smell and pollution they spread. they dont seem to notice it themselves, but the non smokers around them and up to 100 meters away all notice them.

    • I’m not sure that’s really the case here. There’s simply no way you can’t notice bad pollution from vehicles.

      Standing near the average car isn’t that bad at all. EVs are way better, but it’s not that bad.

      But stand near a car that has some sort of exhaust problem or isn’t burning fuel correctly and it’s bad. Just horrible to breathe.

      I’ve found cabin air filters either activated carbon help immensely. I started buying them on someone’s recommendation but I had no idea how much they affected things.

      I’ve driven on brand new asphalt and not noticed the smell. I’ve been behind horrible cars and I don’t notice a thing, unless I put my window down and then it suddenly hits me.

      All of a sudden lately I’m smelling the terrible cars again. Time to change the filter.

  • > Tesla's EV trucks need to deal the same hard kick to diesel trucks that they did to cars

    That won't happen until they design a normal truck. The Lightning sold more than the CT and it still ended up getting canceled(ish). It isn't going to be Tesla that does it, it will probably be someone else, and the driving factor is battery capacity. We've got a ways to go yet. It would help to have 400+ kWh batteries and megawatt chargers.

It also causes roads to be damaged/destroyed FAR faster due to the vehicales on average weighing significantly more.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_power_law

It also simply moves the pollution to places like Africa where the extremely dirty lithium mining is externalized away from wealthy westerners.

Environmental externalization.

  • The lithium mining is surely not causing anywhere near as much pollution as fossil fuel burning. If you think it's actually significant, please show relevant studies and/or analysis.

  • Only poorly designed EV's are significantly heavier.

    A Tesla 3 and a BMW 3 are about the same weight.

    • BMWs are all pigfat today. Compare it to a proper sports car like a Miata.

      Most cars are far too heavy and should be made lighter. Only Mazda seems to understand this and that's why the Mazda SUVs/sedans are by far the best driving vehicles in their class.

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Has the study made an effort to exclude any other factors? For example, a reduction in commute during the covid years?

  • > For the analysis, the researchers divided California into 1,692 neighborhoods, using a geographic unit similar to zip codes. They obtained publicly available data from the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles on the number of ZEVs registered in each neighborhood. ZEVs include full-battery electric cars, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell cars, but not heavier duty vehicles like delivery trucks and semi trucks.

    > Next, the research team obtained data from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), a high-resolution satellite sensor that provides daily, global measurements of NO₂ and other pollutants. They used this data to calculate annual average NO₂ levels in each California neighborhood from 2019 to 2023.

    > Over the study period, a typical neighborhood gained 272 ZEVs, with most neighborhoods adding between 18 and 839. For every 200 new ZEVs registered, NO₂ levels dropped 1.1%, a measurable improvement in air quality.

    Seems pretty clear to me that that's controlled for.

Tires and brakes still contribute to a lot of particulate matter pollution even from EV's, but they're at least a step up. The best EV's are still eBikes though.

It's great to see a reduction in local pollution but it is worth remembering the electric vehicles ultimately have zero impact on climate change and petroleum consumption (which as continue to rise year-over-year).

Oil not used in ICE cars is just used someplace else.

Electric cars are great for the city/suburbs but don't really make a dent in the larger resource usage issues facing us.

  • > Oil not used in ICE cars is just used someplace else.

    That's simply not true. Oil used someplace else would have been used someplace else either way.

    There is a supply/demand effect where reduced oil demand would lower its price and therefore arrest the loss of oil demand from cars by other consumers of oil, but the net effect would still be that less oil is burned and used.