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Comment by mike_hearn

3 hours ago

By walked back, what I meant is his conclusion starts by demanding an apology, saying reading the paper was a waste of time and that Ioannidis "screwed up", that he didn't "look too carefully", that Stanford has "paid a price" for being associated with him, etc.

But then in the P.P.P.S sections he's saying things like "I’m not saying that the claims in the above-linked paper are wrong." (then he has to repeat that twice because in fact that's exactly what it sounds like he's saying), and "When I wrote that the authors of the article owe us all an apology, I didn’t mean they owed us an apology for doing the study" but given he wrote extensively about how he would not have published the study, I think he did mean that.

Also bear in mind there was a followup where Ioannidis's team went the extra mile to satisfy people like Gellman and:

They added more tests of known samples. Before, their reported specificity was 399/401; now it’s 3308/3324. If you’re willing to treat these as independent samples with a common probability, then this is good evidence that the specificity is more than 99.2%. I can do the full Bayesian analysis to be sure, but, roughly, under the assumption of independent sampling, we can now say with confidence that the true infection rate was more than 0.5%.

After taking into account the revised paper, which raised the standard from high to very high, there's not much of Gellman's critique left tbh. I would respect this kind of critique more if he had mentioned the garbage-tier quality of the rest of the literature. Ioannidis' standards were still much higher than everyone else's at that time.