Software Pump and Dump

3 days ago (tautvilas.lt)

The top three stories on hn right now:

  1. ▲ Moltbook (moltbook.com)
       538 points by teej 8 hours ago | hide | 293 comments
  
  2. ▲ Software Pump and Dump (tautvilas.lt)
       108 points by brisky 5 hours ago | hide | 25 comments
  
  3. ▲ OpenClaw – Moltbot Renamed Again (openclaw.ai)
       256 points by ed 6 hours ago | hide | 110 comments

This is art.

  • Life is beautiful, you have both sides of religious sects of AI here. The iconoclasts and the believers, which ends up in funny situations like this

  • Yeah; I did not quite understand GasTown (although I like Steve's writing style); I absolutely do not understand Moltbook or its purpose; I'm not sure I understand the point of OpenClaw -- in the sense that its benefits are not immediately obvious, while its dangers are making big red flashes and fire sirens.

    Often when you don't understand something you feel stupid; but sometimes the reason you don't understand is because somebody's trying to sell something to you, and it's that thing that's supid, or pointless, or a scam, or all three.

FWIW I’ve been in enough of these cycles to see the same pattern play out now with software + AI hype that I saw back in crypto land. You get:

some half-baked project that looks cool until you actually try it,

a flood of “look at me I’m first” blog posts and influencers hyping the hell out of it,

people and companies saying they’re building on it because they don’t want to be left behind,

a weird intersection with tokens/coins thrown in as an afterthought because hey, incentives, right? — and suddenly the narrative becomes “pump this thing hard”.

  • I mean besides crypto and ai being big investments, i barely see any parallels. AI you can actually use to build useful things in the world , and tokens are used not as trading , but transactional currency to do that building.

    • I did a lot of postgraduate research around crypto from 2011 - 2016. There are a lot of parallels, and your message adds to them.

      "x is different because we can actually do useful stuff with it" is what every x enthusiast deep in an x bubble or pump n dump says about x.

      When the next big tech bubble comes along in 10 - 15 years, there will be people saying exactly what you just said: "NextBigTech you can actually use to build useful things in the world, and NextBigTech thing actually does that building, not just what LastBigTech thing (AI) did, that obviously didn't deliver the utopia it promised".

      I wonder what it'll be. AGI? Quantum computing? Brain computer interfaces?

      I'd love to pickup this conversation again with you in 15 years.

      5 replies →

>A new worrying amalgamation of crypto scams and vibe coding emerges from the bowels of the internet in 2026

i have a filter for this kind of thing in the era of greedmaxxing (get rich quick schemes that are not new but change shape pretty often these days) - be a late adopter.

  • This is also best practice for anything else you may be held accountable for.

    To wait is to maximize information and efficiency in execution.

I really don’t get the strategy here. What do the coins have to do with the project? Why would someone who was “lured” into using the project buy the coins? Why would someone speculating on the coins use the project? What’s the connection? I’m genuinely having a hard time understanding what there even is for someone to “fall for” here. How does any of this trick anyone?

I guess I really am just that out of touch with “AI” and cryptocurrency.

  • I feel like I’ve unlocked a magic cheat code here, everyone listen up:

    I read that GasTown post, thought it was cool, pulled it down, found out the principles are there but the implementation is still a little glitchy, took a couple IDEAS from Gas Town (beads and the idea of controlling an agent with hooks and tmux), made a small ralph-wiggum-loop-ish thing, and I’m now building my 4th (this is not a joke) Acid3-compliant browser this week (Acid3 doesn’t include HTML5, so this is a large but not unreasonable project).

    And I did it all without investing a dime in any crypto, or telling anyone to do so (for the record: stay in school kids, don’t invest in crypto). I have somehow achieved all of the upside with none of the downside. Study me. I’ve clearly figured out something that has eluded all of these pump-and-dump callout bloggers.

  • I don't think you are out of touch. I see this more as opportunistic behavior rather than the main thing. A side show. Some people buy/sell crypto. Most people at this point ignore the whole space and have turned their back on them.

    All that's left is serial bullshitters generally not delivering anything real or tangible whatsoever. But of course, them affiliating themselves with whatever is fashionable is entirely in character. That's what serial bullshitters do.

    As far as I can see there's little to no overlap in the Venn diagram of crypto tech bro types and AI optimists/utopians. Neither group produces much technology. They mostly just move hot air.

    And then there's a rather large crowd of skeptical yet open minded people actually getting some early results using or building various AI tools.

    Most AI stuff on HN breaks into the AI bears (it's all bull-shit and going to end in tears, any minute now) and bulls (AGI is imminent and we're all going to be unemployed and then our AI overlords will kill us). And a few occasional rational things in between.

    I'm in camp rational. Some cool/useful tools out there. Getting some tangible results using those. Clear and quite rapid progress year on year. Worth keeping up with. I don't worry about employment. I'm quite busy currently. All this AI stuff is generating lots of work and new business potential. And the AIs are not picking up the slack so far. If anything, there's a growing gap between what's possible and what's being realized. That's what opportunity looks like. I see a lot of business potential currently for somebody reasonably handy with AI tools.

  • > I guess I really am just that out of touch with “AI” and cryptocurrency.

    I get that feeling. I suppose it's more about crypto than AI, where the first translates into "pyramid scheme" and the second to "hype".

    Any kind of defraud must be rooted in someone's greed. In this case that's FOMO about some presumably magic discovery that's gonna change the world.

    So nothing special you might have missed about AI or cryptocurrencies. It's just that those are relatively cheap and accessible technologies to create and transfer (presumed) wealth.

  • People can spin up magic crypto coins backed by other crypto coins at the push of a button.

    Dirtbag crypto people will spin up a coin in the name of someone's software product, give the project owner a bunch of coin, make them feel special like they're suddenly part of lots of money, and then astroturf and pump the coin as much as they can before setting up for a rugpull by either the project owner trying to cash out, or the crypto folks trying to finish the job off.

    • Fraudsters are essentially buying the "whitepaper" (technical/business legitimacy) in the classic crypto pump and dump scheme.

    • You didn't answer the question though, you just double downed on crypto=bad.

      If someone posts a github link of some LLM tool, clawbot or whatever. You are free to run or fork it and then some crypto bro creates a clawbot $coin.. nobody is forcing you to buy the $coin.

      2 replies →

I think Pump should happen in any new industry.

Pump == experimentation/innovation, different people look at it differently, so you get variety of interesting ideas.

Dump == natural consequence of over-supply, in this case whatever is not useful, we will drop.

But to invent/discover new things, new paradigms, we need that Pump.

1. Look at age of computers, we had so many different architectures and computer brands with own hardware, now mostly converged to a couple of architectures

2. Operating systems, at some point everyone was writing operating systems, now converged to primarily 3

3. Programming languages, not converged to small number of languages, but there were bunch of languages, same with Databases

4. Frontend frameworks, converged around React & Vue.

5. Search engines

6. Social networks

We need that Pump

  • “Pump & Dump” has a very specific meaning here, something that is essentially a scam to cheat people out of their money, and not an actual honest attempt to create something new…

  • Pump and dump is not the same as competition resulting in winners and losers, it’s a grift by the losers to profit at the expense of users through deception.

Gonna be a lot of cheap Mac minis for sale on eBay in a few weeks hopefully

  • As someone who is currently looking to setup local CI for macOS hardware, that'd be neat :)

    Unrelated; For CI, what hardware would people recommend? I'm choosing between mac Mini (M4 Pro) and Mac Studio (M3 Ultra) but haven't digged into the CPU difference yet to understand what would be best. Opinions?

    • How heavy is your CI workload? Even the base Mac Mini is equipped with a pretty beefy CPU, but obviously it has limited RAM/storage (although the latter can be solved with a cheap external SSD enclosure).

      1 reply →

  • Why?

    • People are buying mac minis to run clawbot. They will quickly realize it was a fun toy and it will be turned off, then sold on a marketplace.

People are still buying shitcoins in 2026!?

I'm surprised anyone is still holding Bitcoin at this point... I thought everyone finally got with the program that crypto will never amount to anything...

What worries me even more is tens of thousands (or even magnitudes higher) half-baked, over-hyped, vibe-coded spaghetti "open-source projects" released publicly for clout or to attract investment.

It is like all the garbage papers you find in academia that you need to sift through until you find that one good paper. Needle in a haystack.

2026 will be the year of vibe-code driven enshittification. Github will be the casualty.

  • I'm gonna blow your mind a bit here, but this isn't just the fault of the people making the software, it's also the fault of the vast majority of the people here and on the internet in general. Quality doesn't get your attention.

    The truth is building a project is like a lottery ticket, and there's hard diminishing returns on time invested in quality in terms of payoff. If I told you you could spend 10x more time for a 2x increase in probability of success, if you were trying to make a living from your creativity, you would be stupid to spend the extra time, it's a horrible investment.

    The people spamming half baked projects that they quickly abandon if they don't get traction are being rational. People like me that grind on unsexy process bottlenecks and try to keep refining into something really nice are the irrational ones.

  • In the last 6 months we've seen no fewer then a dozen vibe coded/AI assisted open source, self hosted projects launch that complete against ours. So far all but one has fizzled out, with the same pattern each time: announcement, repo with 1 giant commit, 2-4 months of feature releases, loss of interest from the author, and finally abandonment.

    I expect once users get burnt enough time, they'll stop adopting the new cool thing until it's been out long enough with consistent releases.

  • It will be interesting to watch how they decide what new data to train on if most of it is low quality.

The new shit-coin-as-a-service app(Bags) is a fascinating evolution of the system. Shitcoins started as a mechanism to monetize your own fame but have apparently evolved so you can monetize other people's fame.

On one hand this is pretty obviously dumb but on the other maybe I'm just not 'getting it' and if shit-coin-speculators want to help finance OSS projects (vibe coded or no) why complain about it?

> AI models became much better and even doing a "ralph loop" on a simple prompt in a few hours could produce copious amount of working code. As a result you have burned through thousands of dollars of tokens to get some barely working "product" but you had no idea who or why would use it.

Not with a plan from Anthropic or OpenAI. It seems like using pure API is a status symbol among some developers. Look how much I spend on tokens.

Fully agreed on the clawdbot hype. But I feel like a "natural selection" process is taking place in these situations; AI influencers and vibe coders are going to fall for it (good riddance). Any programmer worth their salt (like the author) knows Steipe's works is bs and moves on. Steipe prides himself in the half-ass spaghetti code his agents write, and has constantly opposed best practices in the industry like context management through subagents, etc. He's understood that "just talk to it" mantra attracts noobs and buys him internet clout.

  • Hah you had me until “best practices in the industry like context management through subagents, etc.”

Note, unofficial scam coins that grift on memes are very common and have been for about 2 years now, it doesn't mean an official affiliation.

However 2 things are very specific to this case:

1- Dev received a donation, which might be a way for a crypto rug puller to pump a coin. Kind of tangential, but it might be dirty money that the dev accepted. What usually happens is that the famous person is naïve and believes that they really deserve the money, and then they promote a coin which is rugpulled, that's the basic but there might be many shapes, like sending a single prompt about cryptocurrency and causing moltbot to create a new coin.

2- There is a PoW effect in agentic vibe coding, poetically illustrated in GasTown. This parallel makes it possible that there's a very tight relationship between these 2 worlds.

> The initial software Pump and Dump event could be considered when Cursor burned through millions of dollars to build a barely working browser. Naturally there was no way to finish such a monstrous heap of software into a working product and why would anybody use a vibe coded browser anyway? The "dump" on their end was to use this as marketing bait and a way to inflate their valuation.

Let me introduce you to the wonderful world of "research." It's what happens when you're willing to spend money on things without immediate, obvious ROI. The real value often comes not from the resulting product, but from the lessons learned along the way. I also don't see what's wrong with showcasing the results of your experiments. How many developers have implemented a toy ray tracer and put it on their personal GitHub? No one in their right mind believes Pixar will use it for their next renderer, but should we conclude those people are inflating their CVs with bait? Or can we acknowledge it's a cool project to undertake, and pulling it off requires real skill? If individuals are welcome to do this, why can't organizations? I want to see more "we did a fun thing, here are the results." There's a playfulness in that approach I find refreshing. Just because it comes from a for-profit company doesn't make it cynical.

  • It was only through external review that the problems with the project were discovered, and the blog post was clearly written for marketing as it hardly shared any actual details about the result other than an unexplained video they called a screenshot. Good faith research would have pointed out the limitations of their system

  • I don't think that most research starts with the idea of being a crypto rugpull. Many research labs and startups fail, and that is fine, you dont have to double down and drag a bunch of people into the mud with you because of that, which is what a lot of the example the author points to.

    In some sense I just feel like this is another way to gamble, which in general is seeing an unprecedented growth with Polymarket and the likes. There is less faith in white-collar skills making you rich, so you just try your luck.

  • > but from the lessons learned along the way

    When the published "lessons" don't match up with what the experiment actually did, that's when people start asking questions. Is not just "boo it didn't work", but there is a vast mismatch between what the research actually answered, and what they claimed it answered.

  • This is a stunning false equivalency and is an irresponsible comparison.

    • You've made an emotional declaration, without an argument to justify it. For instance, it would be helpful to understand why you think it's a false equivalency, and in what way it is irresponsible.

    • If you want to contribute something to the discussion, do that, rather than just saying that you don't like the parent's argument, that's what the down button is for.

  • The initial tweet was primarily a lie though

    > The rendering engine is from-scratch in Rust with HTML parsing, CSS cascade, layout, text shaping, paint, and a custom JS VM.

    If I cloned Pixar’s rendering library and called that then added to my CV ‘built a renderer from scratch’ this would be entirely dishonest…

    I use LLMs often and don’t hate Cursor or think they’re a bad company. But it’s obvious they are being squeezed and have little USP (even less so than other AI players). They are frankly extremely pressured to make up lies.

    I don’t think I’d resist the pressure either, so not on a high horse here, but it doesn’t make it any less dishonest.

  • Lmaooo

    You think the 30 billion dollar VSCode fork company is vibe coding a broken browser because it’s fun?

    Cute.

  • > Just because it comes from a for-profit company doesn't make it cynical.

    I thought only AI bots were born yesterday.