Comment by motoboi
2 days ago
What amazes me is why would someone spend millions to train this model and give it away for free. What is the business here?
2 days ago
What amazes me is why would someone spend millions to train this model and give it away for free. What is the business here?
Chinese state that maybe sees open collaboration as the way to nullify any US lead in the field, concurrently if the next "search-winner" is built upon their model the Chinese worldview that Taiwan belongs to China and Tiamen Square massacre never happened.
Also their license says that if you have a big product you need to promote them, remember how Google "gave away" site searche widgets and that was perhaps one of the major ways they gained recognition for being the search leader.
OpenAI/NVidia is the Pets.com/Sun of our generation, insane valuations, stupid spend, expensive options, expensive hardware and so on.
Sun hardware bought for 50k USD to run websites in 2000 are less capable than perhaps 5 dollar/month VPS's today?
"Scaling to AGI/ASI" was always a fools errand, best case OpenAI should've squirreled away money to have a solid engineering department that could focus on algorithmic innovations but considering that Antrophic, Google and Chinese firms have caught up or surpassed them it seems they didn't.
Once things blows up, those closed options that had somewhat sane/solid model research that handles things better will be left and a ton of new competitors running modern/cheaper hardware and just using models are building blocks.
> "Scaling to AGI/ASI" was always a fools errand
Scaling depends on hardware, so cheaper hardware on a compute-per-watt basis only makes scaling easier. There is no clear definition of AGI/ASI but AI has already scaled to be quite useful.
> There is no clear definition of AGI
? Yes there's a clear defintion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligenc...
I think you mean there is no agreed upon definition? Even that is dubious statement.
I love how Tiananmen square is always brought up as some unique and tragic example of disinformation that could never occur in the west, as though western governments don't do the exact same thing with our worldview. Your veneer of cynicism scarcely hides the structure of naivety behind.
The difference is that, in the west, there's an acceptable counter narrative. I can tell you that Ruby Ridge and Waco never should've happened and were examples of government overreach and massacre of it's own citizens. Or <insert pet issue with the government here>
You can't with Tiananmen square in China
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> Taiwan belongs to China
So they are on the same page as the UN and US?
The One China policy refers to a United States policy of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan.[1] In a 1972 joint communiqué with the PRC, the United States "acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China" and "does not challenge that position."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_and_the_United_Nations
The One China policy is a fiction of foreign policy statecraft, designed to sideline the issue without having to actually deal with it. It is quite clear that apart from the official fiction there is a real policy that is not One China. This is made clear by the weapons sales to Taiwan that specifically calibrated to make a Chinese military action harder.
Existence of an independent and effectively sovereign state on the island of Taiwan (however one calls it) is a fact. Whatever doublespeak governments of other countries or international organizations engage in due to political reasons does not change that.
Speculating: there are two connected businesses here, creating the models, and serving the models. Outside of a few moneyed outliers, no one is going to run this at home. So at worst opening this model allows mid-sized competitors to serve it to customers from their own infra -- which helps Kimi gain mindshare, particularly against the large incumbents who are definitely not going to be serving Kimi and so don't benefit from its openness.
Given the shallowness of moats in the LLM market, optimizing for mindshare would not be the worst move.
Moonshot’s (Kimi’s owner) investors are Alibaba/Tencent et al. Chinese market is stupidly competitive, and there’s a general attitude of “household name will take it all”. However getting there requires having a WeChat-esque user base, through one way or another. If it’s paid, there’ll be friction and it won’t work. Plus, it undermines a lot of other companies, which is a win for a lot of people.
I think this fits into some "Commoditize The Complement" strategy.
https://gwern.net/complement
I think there is a book (Chip War) about how the USSR did not effectively participate in staying at the edge of the semiconductor revolution. And they have suffered for it.
China has decided they are going to participate in the LLM/AGI/etc revolution at any cost. So it is a sunk cost, and the models are just an end product and any revenue is validation and great, but not essential. The cheaper price points keep their models used and relevant. It challenges the other (US, EU) models to innovate and keep ahead to justify their higher valuations (both monthly plan, and investor). Once those advances are made, it can be bought back to their own models. In effect, the currently leading models are running from a second place candidate who never gets tired and eventually does what they do at a lower price point.
In some way, the US won the cold war by spending so much on military that the USSR, in trying to keep up, collapsed. I don't see any parallels between that and China providing infinite free compute to their AI labs, why do you ask?
> What amazes me is why would someone spend millions to train this model and give it away for free. What is the business here?
How many millions did Google spend on Android (acquisition and salaries), only to give it away for free?
Usually, companies do this to break into a monopolized market (or one that's at risk of becoming one), with openness as a sweetener. IBM with Linux to break UNIX-on-big-iron domination, Google with Android vs. iPhone, Sun with OpenSolaris vs. Linux-on-x86.
All economically transformative technologies have done similar. If it's privatized, it's not gonna be transformative across the industry. The GPS, the internet, touchscreens, AI voice assistants, microchips, LCDs, etc were all publicly funded (or made by Bell Labs which had a state-mandated monopoly that forced them to open up their patents).
The economist Mariana Mazzucato wrote a great book about this called The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths
Curious to hear what “OpenAI” thinks the answer to this is
Hosting the model is cheaper per token, the more batched token you get. So they have big advantage here.
It's another state project funded at the discretion of the party.
If you look at past state projects, profitability wasn't really considered much. They are notorious for a "Money hose until a diamond is found in the mountains of waste"