Comment by rurp
1 month ago
I have deliberately moderated my use of AI in large part for this reason. For a solid two years now I've been constantly seeing claims of "this model/IDE/Agent/approach/etc is the future of writing code! It makes me 50x more productive, and will do the same for you!" And inevitabely those have all fallen by the wayside and been replaced by some new shiny thing. As someone who doesn't get intrinsic joy out of chasing the latest tech fad I usually move along and wait to see if whatever is being hyped really starts to take over the world.
This isn't to say LLMs won't change software development forever, I think they will. But I doubt anyone has any idea what kind of tools and approaches everyone will be using 5 or 10 years from now, except that I really doubt it will be whatever is being hyped up at this exact moment.
HN is where I keep hearing the “50× more productive” claims the most. I’ve been reading 2024 annual reports and 2025 quarterlies to see whether any of this shows up on the other side of the hype.
So far, the only company making loud, concrete claims backed by audited financials is Klarna and once you dig in, their improved profitability lines up far more cleanly with layoffs, hiring freezes, business simplification, and a cyclical rebound than with Gen-AI magically multiplying output. AI helped support a smaller org that eliminated more complicated financial products that have edge cases, but it didn’t create a step-change in productivity.
If Gen-AI were making tech workers even 10× more productive at scale, you’d expect to see it reflected in revenue per employee, margins, or operating leverage across the sector.
We’re just not seeing that yet.
I have friends who make such 50x productivity claims. They are correct if we define productivity as creating untested apps and games and their features that will never ship --- or be purchased, even if they were to ship. Thus, “productivity” has become just another point of contention.
100% agree. There are far more half-baked, incomplete "products" and projects out there now that it is easier to generate code. Generously, that doesn't necessarily equate to productivity.
I've agree with the fact that the last 10% of a project is the hardest part, and that's the part that Gen-AI sucks at (hell, maybe the 30%).
> If Gen-AI were making tech workers even 10× more productive at scale, you’d expect to see it reflected in revenue per employee, margins, or operating leverage across the sector.
If we’re even just talking a 2x multiplier, it should show up in some externally verifiable numbers.
I agree, and we might be seeing this but there is so much noise, so many other factors, and we're in the midst of capital re-asserting control after a temporary loss of leverage which might also be part of a productivity boost (people are scared so they are working harder).
The issue is that I'm not a professional financial analyst and I can't spend all day on comps so I can't tell through the noise yet if we're seeing even 2x related to AI.
But, if we're seeing 10x, I'd be finding it in the financials. Hell, a blind squirrel would, and it's simply not there.
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