Comment by lumost
7 hours ago
This .. doesn't seem like such a terrible deal? At the purported growth rates, you'd expect OpenAI to reach 60-100 billion revenue by 2028. This is more or less the equivalent of building a new AWS.
Provided they keep cost growth slower than revenue and don't get disrupted by another model provider/commodification etc.
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> At the purported growth rates, you'd expect OpenAI to reach 60-100 billion revenue by 2028.
I hope that’s “real” revenue and not the cyclic quid pro quo that seems to be propping the whole thing up.
Nonsense. To give you a sense about how much $100B in revenue is, that would be the equivalent of every person in the United States paying $25/mo. Obviously that’s not happening, so how many businesses can and will pay far more than that, when there’s also Anthropic and Gemini offerings?
I think it could get there with business alone, and also with consumer alone given the hardware, shopping, and ads angles. It’s an everything business and nobody on HN seems to understand that.
> when there’s also Anthropic and Gemini offerings?
For average people the global competitors are putting up near identical services at 1/10th the cost. Anthropic and Google and OpenAI may have a corporate sales advantage about their security and domestic alignment, or being 5% better at some specific task but the populace at large isn't going to cough up $25 for that difference. Beyond the first month or two of the novelty phase it's not apparent the average person is willing to pay for AI services at all.
This can happen using government funds. What if the government takes 25 USD / mo from citizens and offer them to the "best" AI ?
You can squeeze 25 USD/month of all US people on average, and claim the US government gives you "free AI".