Comment by jobs_throwaway
16 hours ago
> But most humans would have been aware of the big picture scenario much earlier.
I wouldn't call it likely. Sure, there are definitely human drivers who are better than Waymo, but IME they're few and far between. Much more common to be distracted or careless.
When walking along a busy street facing traffic, I like to play a game of "who's using a phone?" I sometimes score in excess of 50% of drivers texting or otherwise manipulating a phone instead of actually driving.
It's amazing how much nonsense we let slide with human drivers, and then get uptight about with anything else. You see the same attitude with bicycles. Cars run stop signs and red lights all day long and nobody bats an eye, but a cyclist does it and suddenly they're a menace.
I don't think it makes sense to lump some drivers better than waymo and worse than waymo. A human brain automatically thinks of all the scenarios, where Waymo has pre-programmed ones (and some NN based ones). So it's scenarios by scenario.
Consider this scenario:
5 kids are walking on the sidewalk while you're driving past them. But suddenly a large dumpster is blocking your view of them just as you pass. You saw them before the dumpster, but not after your car and the dumpster completely blocks the view.
Does a human brain carry some worry that they suddenly decide to run and try to cross the street after the dumpster? Does Waymo carry that worry or just continue to drive at the exact same speed.
Again, it's not like every driver will think about this, but many drivers will (even the bad ones).
> A human brain automatically thinks of all the scenarios
I don't think this is true. There are infinitely many scenarios in a complex situation like a road with traffic, cars parked, pedestrians about, weather, etc. My brain might be able to quickly assess a handful, but certainly not all.
> like a road with traffic, cars parked, pedestrians about, weather
Not all of those need to be done "quickly". That's where LLMs fail
You note the weather when you leave. You understand the traffic five minutes ahead. You recognize pedestrians far ahead of time.
Computers can process a lot in fractions of a second. Humans can recognize context over many minutes.
The Waymo may have done better in the fraction of a second, but humans can avoid being in that situation to begin with.
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There aren't infinitely many scenarios to consider, but even if that's a figure of speech, there aren't thousands or even hundreds.
If there's ten kids nearby, that's basically ten path scenarios, and that might be reduced if you have great visibility into some of them.
> My brain might be able to quickly assess a handful, but certainly not all.
What would you do if you can't assess all of them? Just keep driving same speed?
If the situation is too overwhelming you'll almost certainly back off, I know I would. If I'm approaching that school block and there's like 50 small kids running around in all directions, I have no idea what's going on and who is going where, so I'm going to just stop entirely until I can make some sense of it.
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This is the classical ‘Frame Problem” of AI. How do you consider, even if only to reject, infinite scenarios in finite time? Humans and other animals don’t seem to suffer from it.
God I wish I re-read my statement, I was more focused on Humans think of an unlimited number of scenarios - not necessarily all. A computer will only think of pre-programmed ones.
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You are vastly overestimating most drivers. Most drivers aren't even looking out the window the majority of their time driving.
> A human brain automatically thinks of all the scenarios, ...
Patently, obviously false. A human brain will automatically think of SOME scenarios. For instance, if a collision seems imminent, and the driver is holding a cup of coffee, these ideas are likely to occur to the driver:
IF I GRAB THE STEERING WHEEL AND BRAKE HARD, I MIGHT NOT HIT THAT PEDESTRIAN IN FRONT OF ME.
IF I DON'T CONTINUE HOLDING THE COFFEE CAREFULLY, I MIGHT GET SCALDED.
THIS SONG ON MY RADIO IS REALLY ROCKING!
IF I YANK MY WHEEL TO THE LEFT, I MIGHT HIT A CAR INSTEAD OF A HUMAN.
IF I BRAKE HARD OR SWERVE AT ANY TIME IN TRAFFIC, I CAN CAUSE AN ACCIDENT.
Experiments with callosal patients (who have damaged the connective bridge between the halves of their brains) demonstrate that this is a realistic picture of how the brain makes decisions. It offers up a set of possible actions, and attempts to choose the optimal one and discard all others.
A computer program would do likewise, EXCEPT it won't care about the coffee cup nor the radio (remove two bad choices from consideration).
It still has one bad choice (do nothing), but the SNR is much improved.
I'm not being hyperbolic; self-preservation (focusing on keeping that coffee in my hand) is a vital factor in decision-making for a human.
> ...where Waymo has pre-programmed ones (and some NN based ones).
Yes. And as time goes on, more and better-refined scenarios will be added to its programming. Eventually, it's reasonable to believe the car software will constantly reassess how many humans are within HUMAN_RUN_DISTANCE + CAR_TRAVEL_DISTANCE in the next block, and begin tracking any that in an unsafe margin. No human on Earth does that, continually, without fail.
> Does a human brain carry some worry that they suddenly decide to run and try to cross the street after the dumpster? Does Waymo carry that worry or just continue to drive at the exact same speed.
You continue to imply that Waymo cannot ever improve on its current programming. Does it currently consider this situation? Probably not. Will it? Probably.
God I wish I re-read my statement, I was more focused on Humans think of an unlimited number of scenarios - not necessarily all. A computer will only think of pre-programmed ones.
For what it's worth, that kind of lumping of drivers is more-or-less one of the metrics Waymo is using to self-evaluate. Perfect safety when multi-ton vehicles share space with sub-300-pound humans is impossible. But they ultimately seek to do better than humans in all contexts.