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Comment by direwolf20

17 hours ago

They will grow exponentially and catch the western market unawares in 10-15 years with a sudden flood of cheap, effective chips. Just like everything else China makes. Electric vehicles for example.

17 comments

direwolf20

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filloooo  17 hours ago

Sure, if they've got production grade EUV, but right now they don't even have production grade DUV.

I'm also sure they can go as far as 5nm like SMIC if they really wanted to, since it's strategic for China, but the cost would only be justified if the current cycle lasts long enough.

  • direwolf20  16 hours ago

    I was corrected elsewhere when I thought RAM was more expensive 10 years ago. RAM was actually cheaper 10 years ago, when it was DDR3/DDR4 too. If any company can replicate the 10 year old SOTA, they can bring prices down.

    • mikestorrent  14 hours ago

      This is what I expect to happen. 2016's ram was good enough for consumers then and probably still is for a huge class of consumers now. I'd rather 32GB of DDR3 than 8gb of DDR5.

      5 replies →

Imustaskforhelp  16 hours ago

The problem is that the chances of the bursting of AI bubble seem far more likely than this happening first which you say about 10-15 years.

plus, the ram manufacturer cycle moves and does this all the time.

Atrioc does a really good job explaining these cycles[0]

But the point is that AI demand peaked when the supply was at its lowest which is why we are caught up in this messed up timeline that we live in. And this has sort of happen in the past too and this industries notorious for it (again watch the video, definitely worth it imo)

But still it feels like we are in this atleast for a year or two hard. Micron is iirc like suggesting what hundreds of billions of $ in factory investment right now and saying that the fastest might open in early 2027

Some estimates 2028 idk, I do feel like the chances of AI bubble popping around this time are likely too.

But still for atleast 1-2 years, we either as consumers or as small vps providers (yes the people who create vps providers are same people like you and me) are absolutely f*ed and the question is around that imo.

[0] The AI Tax Has Started: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nipeaKC3dWs

  • cogman10  14 hours ago

    The thing is, even if the market bursts, prices are already inflated. RAM manufacturers know that everything 5xed and they aren't likely going to rush out and drop the price levels to pre-expansion. Once the AI market bursts, you can expect slow and methodical decreases in price (if any).

    And that will ultimately buy China a lot of time to shove their ram into the market cutting ram manufacturers out of most non-US markets.

    I think the major memory manufacturers are simply banking on their ability to flood the market if worst comes to worse. That or I could see some standards trickery around DDR6 (or some new BS standard). It'd not shock me if they coordinated with AMD/Intel to keep the standard secret as long as possible simply give themselves a lead in production.