Comment by qnpnpmqppnp
18 hours ago
> This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening.
The stock market being at an all-time high, a crash in the usual meaning of this term is not, by definition, currently happening.
Since apparently this isn't what you mean by "crash", could you define what you mean by this term so we're all on the same page?
All time high if denominated in USD. YoY, stocks have been increasing in value as fast as USD is losing to CHF. Regardless of whether gold and silver jumps are a pump and dump, stocks, in "real" value, are at most flat.
Well it's an all time high in EUR as well for instance. I haven't checked for CHF or other currency one may cherry-pick, but in any case it wouldn't change my point: even if it was slightly below an all time high, it's not currently crashing.
I'm not the one who made the "it's crashing now" claim and I do agree that from a certain point of view, it might be seen as a stretch.
However, what I'm claiming is that "all time high" is also quite a stretch. Pretty much all nations have been printing money pretty intensely, so fiat is not a solid anchor to derive "actual value", but CHF might be among those that are less printed, so I chose it.
Even if we chose EUR, EURUSD wins YoY over S&P 500, hence, "stocks are flat". Sure, in the case of EUR, optics are fuzzier and you might pick a point or index showing a small increase over EURUSD, but I don't think it's strong enough to beat the general point, especially if your counter point is "stocks are at an all time high".
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law
It’s funny when people just determine that a crash only happens when the stock market crashes. Things were crashing in the housing market before the stock market crashed in 2008. Do your homework.
> Do your homework.
About what though? You haven't explained what you meant by a crash so I don't have much more to go by to understand your point.
If not the stock market, what's the market you mean is currently crashing?