Comment by w10-1

It might be a mistake to think in terms of production costs.

The real "cost" of software is reliance: what risk do your API clients or customers take in relying on you? This is just as true for free-as-in-beer software as for SaaS with enterprise SLA's.

In software and in professions, providers have some combination of method and qualifications or authority which justifies reliance by their clients. Both education and software have reduced the reliance on naked authority, but a good track record remains the gold standard.

So providers (individuals and companies) have to ask how much of their reputation do they want to risk on any new method (AI, agile, ...)? Initially, it's always a promising boost in productivity. But then...

So the real question is what "Show me" means - for a quick meet, an enterprise sale, an enduring human-scale consumer dependence...

So, prediction: AI companies and people that can "show me" will be the winners.

(Unfortunately, we've also seen competitive advantage accrue to dystopian hiding of truth and risk, which would have the same transaction-positive effect but shift and defer the burden of risk. Let's hope...)