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Comment by SimianSci

8 hours ago

The Goalpost shift continues, If elon were working for me, I would have fired him for having never delivered on any of his projects.

Hyperloop > Neuralink > Self-Driving Cars > Robotaxi fleets > Personal Robots > Orbital Datacenters > [Insert next]

> If elon were working for me, I would have fired him for having never delivered on any of his projects.

Never? For the sheer amount of moonshot bets he's doing, his track record would make any VC jealous. Zip2, PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX, Grok/xAI.

  • >Zip2

    I guess props to scamming Compaq into making a large investment that didn't pan out. He did personally make money so I guess win for him.

    >In an effort to woo investors, Elon Musk built a large casing around a standard computer to give the impression that Zip2 was powered by a supercomputer.

    >PayPal

    Huh? He didn't found Paypal, his company was acquired by Paypal. You might as well give him credit for eBay while you're at it. Paypal released their first digital wallet in 1999. They acquired x.com (and Musk) in 2000. Paypal itself was then acquired by eBay in 2002.

    >Tesla

    Investor, not founder.

    >SpaceX

    Yup, props here.

    >Grok/xAI

    Hasn't made a penny, no signs it had any path to profitability, which is why it was shoved into Space-X to cover his personal losses.

    • Taking Tesla from where it was (an overpriced prototype) to what it is now did take some skill. He wasn't some passive investor who put money in and didn't do anything. The rest for sure he was gotten credit that isn't earned.

Hey now. Huperliop was designed to scuttle California’s light rail project. Which it did. Mission accomplished.

hmm Tesla shipped millions of cars SpaceX launches 90% of space payloads, Starlink is working well. Thats hard to categorize as never delivered on any of his projects

  • The crucial thing is that Tesla's valuation has the hype projects baked in. The fact that it never delivered self driving or a robotaxi fleet and is now being saved solely by an import ban on Chinese EVs means that any success he had with Tesla is now an illusion.

    • Yep but again that does not qualify as never delivered on anything.

    • I don't follow his promises but have seen first hand how far ahead Tesla FSD is compared to competitors in the consumer space. It's not even close.

      This current announcement seems silly, though.

      1 reply →

    • > The fact that it never delivered self driving or a robotaxi fleet a

      Once again pointing out Tesla has around 300 robotaxis running in 2 cities (Austin/SF).

      1 reply →

  • The Starlink achievement alone is one of the most insane projects ever attempted and works really well.

  • The projects promised to be life altering for all mankind, they ended up being not even life altering for super rich Americans considering that Teslas are just EVs which without FSD are just regular cars with a different propellent that were made for political purposes and virtue signaling

    The EV revolution has always been something almost dystopic : Trillions of dollars spent in order to not have the slightest amount of quality of life improvement, if anything a worse quality of life because you buy an EV that you cannot use 24/7/365 whereas you can an ICE car for much less .

    As soon as something kinda elegant and hopeful as far as collective quality of life improvement is concerned (AI/ChatGPT) came around.....the whole green/EV revolution rightfully went out the window

    If Musk was this genius you guys make him to be at 50 and with all the capital he burned he should have at least one company that if you disappeared the world would look drastically different, like if you disappeared Microsoft or Apple or Exxon or Aramco or Amazon or IBM....the world would come to a screeching halt.

    Disappear one of Musk companies and everything would be the same as he's always involved in these sort of aspirational companies which have this great vision always 5 years into the future that never materialize into anything tangible or that improves the quality of life like the company I mentioned earlier

    • well Tesla did jump start the EV revolution not life altering but is pretty important. IF SpaceX gets spaceship right that will be a huge leap forward.

      2 replies →

I'm amazed at this kind of thinking. I get it, obviously, and it's not uncommon, but still.

Elon Musk has already revolutionized three industries:

1. EVs: Before Tesla, no one thought electric cars could be a mass-market product. And even today, the Model 3 and Model Y are at the top of almost all sales lists.

2. Orbital Launch: No one expected Space X to succeed. What does a software guy know about real engineering? But today, re-usable rockets are the way of the future, and Space X is at least 5 to 10 years ahead of any other company.

3. Satellite Communications: Every single major military power is trying to deploy their own version of Starlink. Before Starlink, 50 satellites was considered a big constellation. Starlink has 8,000 satellites and they are literally launching hundreds every month.

I know it's impossible to prove a counter-factual, but I'm convinced that none of these three would have happened without Elon. No other Western car company has (even now) produced a profitable EV. No other space company has prices as low as Space X. No one even has the capability to build a Starlink competitor (not yet at least). Without Elon pushing these projects, they simply would not have happened or would have happened decades later (after China or someone else beat us to it).

Even his not-yet-successful projects are far beyond most other companies:

Boring Company has actually built tunnels and passengers are actually riding it. No one else is even trying.

Neuralink has actually helped patients.

Tesla FSD actually does work (I use it all the time), and even if Waymo is ahead, Tesla is easily in second place.

I 100% get the hatred for Elon Musk. His political positions are absolutely worth criticizing and I cringe most of the time he tweets. But to deny his business and engineering ability is just motivated reasoning.

Such illusions are ultimately self-defeating. The more opposed one is to Elon Musk (in business or politics) the more important it is to see his capabilities clearly.

  • > Boring Company has actually built tunnels and passengers are actually riding it. No one else is even trying.

    Boring Company bought an existing tunnel boring machine (TBM), and used it to dig a car tunnel. Their only “innovation” in terms of any cost savings is to dig smaller tunnels - which we already knew could be done (tunnel cost grows with diameter), and which we don’t do for good reasons (capacity, emergency egress).

    The branding and marketing exercise was excellent though.

Lol this is why you aren't a VC. Even if every single Musk venture failed other than SpaceX, the investments would have paid off wildly well. You aim for the tails not the median.

In a way, its kind of cool to see how robber barons work in real time in our generation. Its also insanely depressing as they will systematically enshittify and extract as much wealth from society as is possible.

  • I don't actually think the Robber Barons in the 1920s had people going out of their way to defend them and insist they had special knowledge.

    The New Deal happened with massive popular support because people did not like the Barons, and wanted to stop them and actually have a life worth living.

    It only took like 30 years of suffering.

    • The Robber Barons weren't in the 1920s; that refers to industrial age monopolists (e.g. rail/oil), and culminated in the Sherman Antitrust (i.e. 1800s).

      Broadly, your point is still valid, though. Just a mild inaccuracy between the Gilded Age and the roaring 20s.

The guy also was super excited to go rap3 some k1ds in the island. Gladly he also failed at this.