Comment by caust1c
16 days ago
I watched this video yesterday corroborating this story and I gotta say the evidence is pretty hard to refute:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ws8Grsc4jU
Purposefully devaluing the dollar to make US goods more globally marketable and hide the Japanese debt crisis is an interesting but risky strategy.
Currently, I'm glad to see a correction without panic, but it's too early to make a call on the effect on the overall global economy. Xi's already suggested making the Yuan a global reserve currency, and seeing as much debt they're holding, I'm a little worried they're able to make it happen if this is the US financial strategy.
The channel appears to be five years of "It is happening!" and "It started!" thumbnails. I just can't take it seriously, so I decided to look into the company/leadership.
It appears they've been associated with a lot of hype/fear copy-paste companies that offer highly inflated monthly access to their trades and research. Note that they were named "Game of Trades" before rebranding.
> It appears they've been associated with a lot of hype/fear copy-paste companies that offer highly inflated monthly access to their trades and research. Note that they were named "Game of Trades" before rebranding.
I really wish that people would wake up to the danger posed by meme stock BS “leaking” into the general markets.
Just as voters are responsible for changes in society, uninformed investors can impact society too, especially when they’re amplifying their purchasing power via leverage.
For instance, I’ve been buying real estate forever, and I’ve enjoyed the Reventure app.
But I’ve REALLY noticed that his YT videos are exclusively doom and gloom.
This ceaseless negativity moves markets, just as the irrational exuberance for real estate in 2005 moved markets.
But the exuberance for real estate was driven by people who were buying real estate.
The endless doom and gloom of YT finance videos is for a much different reason:
It drives page views.
That’s not a good thing. Because it’s really easy to get swept up in the negativity. And that negativity has a downstream effect, where it’s often used to convince people to invest in things that the YouTuber is promoting.
Basically, I don’t know if we need an “SEC for YouTube,” but we might.
Yes, I know we already have an SEC for YouTube (it’s the SEC), but nearly none of the people doling out financial advice on YT are trained professionals. It’s the fundamental defect of internet advice; who to trust?
> his YT videos are exclusively doom and gloom
Why do you suppose that is? Why is there an insatiable desire for negative news about real estate?
Misinformation and mass hysteria suck, I agree. But if the amplification of the sky-is-falling-flavor-of-the-week braindead youtuber take can materially imperil financial markets, the stability of that system was always doomed.
An “SEC for YouTube” can’t prevent shit if the lever of influence is already that long. It might be able to keep a lot of meme investor idiots from losing their shirts, but that has to be weighed against the historically evident risks of having what amounts to a ministry of truth/state propaganda regulator.
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Reminds me of ZeroHedge. They've been shouting that the depresssion-level market crash is near now since 2009. Every single day. For 17 years.
i don't think that's a fair representation of the average of the ZH articles.
many bird's eye view articles are depicting how the game is rigged and corrupt to the core and that it is heading towards a wall (and you should buy x, typically gold)... yes.
but then they also have more day-to-day articles discussing market moves and predictions in all directions.
ZH is a wider range of stuff than that. and in all that noise, most of the important alternative, often initially censored news appeared there first.
so, yeah, don't take it all in literally... but then it's a site edited by Tyler Durden FFS... :)
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I can only personally speak for myself and I'm not giving financial advice here. I use the Bolgehead strategy of the 3 fund portfolio is still the tried and true I follow, and I have yet to not benefit from doing so, even in economic downturns[0]
[0]: https://www.bogleheads.org
I'm immediately concerned with the note about silver dropping so much. Yes, that happened, and was a historic drop. But it followed a historic run up to its prior price, so the drop is still net positive for even a 1 month period.
I'm not saying the article's thesis is incorrect, but its providing some data without context. I'm always leery of data presented without context.
I take “not financial advice” articles like this at best as entertainment. How can anyone seriously talk about metals for example without mentioning that gold was $1900 and silver $20 a few years ago. Today they sit at $5000 and $80. It’s completely absurd to write about the “drop” as a proof of anything
this article discusses the events in the recent couple of months, explicitly. the moves prior to that is not really relevant for its thesis -- regardless of how true it actually is.
The Yuan is never going to be a global reserve currency with how opaque the CCP is.
The bar has been significantly lowered in the last year since the US has decided to commit bigly to unpredictability. Another 3 years of these kinds of manipulations and the Yuan could very well look like the lesser evil to a lot of countries.
The Euro is like, right there? Its a market larger then the US.
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> The bar has been significantly lowered in the last year since the US has decided to commit bigly to unpredictability.
The yuan/renminbi is currently about 8.5% of all foreign currency transactions. That's on a similar to CAD and AUD (6%):
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Most_traded_currencie...
It has a ways to go still.
Still nowhere near what the CCP does.
The Yuan already is a popular reserve currency.
What is this crazy idea that every single country must act all the time in the same simplified way?
The Yuan is not a popular reserve currency. It has less than 2% of share vs 57% for the USD.
The first currency to be gold backed will take the crown. China appears to be building towards that end.
I don't understand why gold-backing is required. I'm a novice.
My understanding is that a reserve currency requires fluid markets and a stable, reliable, metrics-based currency policy. It's why the Fed is so stubborn about its relatively simple policy goals: 2% inflation and low unemployment.
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Looks like the BRICS initiative is building towards this with an August announcement. But until it happens, this is still in rumor territory.
https://bmg-group.com/russia-confirms-brics-will-create-gold...
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Who stores the gold? Who audits the gold? Who trusts the audits? It isn't hard to wrap gold around tungsten.
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DO NOT make financial decisions based on the advice of a youtube channel. DO NOT make financial decisions based of of the advice of an an article written by a know associate of Curtis Yarvin. You saw the video yesterday because this is a marketing exercise. They hold a stake in the outcome, you are the greater fool.
Christ.
Find a professional fiduciary that doesn't have a youtube channel and never speculate more than you can afford to lose.
For the unaware:
> Curtis Guy Yarvin (born 1973), also known by the pen name Mencius Moldbug, is an American far-right political blogger and software developer. He is known, along with accelerationist philosopher Nick Land, for founding the anti-egalitarian and anti-democratic philosophical movement known as the Dark Enlightenment or neo-reactionary movement (NRx).
The author (jart, Justine Tunney) has openly supported these ideas: https://thebaffler.com/latest/mouthbreathing-machiavellis
What does this have to do with the merit of his associates' financial advice?
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Oh so they’re a cryptofascist, for both senses of the word crypto
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This really should be pinned to the top of the thread. Finance-as-entertainment is the world's worst gatcha game. For some reason people love getting suckered by these far right idols, both financially and "intellectually", who in turn are playing three-card-monte with them.
Everyone forgetting the more likely, more rule-of-law based fallback option for a reserve currency and international payments system (which is the important bit!): the Euro. Digital or otherwise.
> Xi's already suggested making the Yuan a global reserve currency, and seeing as much debt they're holding, I'm a little worried they're able to make it happen if this is the US financial strategy.
I wonder why you’re worried. Regime’s change all the time. From a third party perspective, China is no better or worse than the US. Also, given how literally every country under the sun despises US now, this might just happen.
The way China manages it's currency is very different to how the US manages theirs.
China maintains strict controls on capital flows in/out. A reserve currency requires free convertibility. Holders need to move large sums instantly without permission. China has repeatedly tightened these controls during stress periods (2015-16 devaluation fears, for example).
Limited access to Chinese bond markets and equities for foreign institutions. Reserve currency status requires deep, liquid markets where central banks can park hundreds of billions. US Treasury market is $26T and extremely liquid. Chinese government bond market is smaller and less accessible.
Reserve currency issuer must run persistent current account deficits to supply the world with currency. China's economic model is built on export surpluses. They'd need to fundamentally restructure their economy.
>Reserve currency issuer must run
This is PRC's fundamental disagreement. US reserve currency morphed into high liquid, high speculative instrument to fund unsustainable debt, hollowed out domestic industry (triffin)... but this is not by design. It's the result of emergency adaptations moving off gold, then people post rationalize the trinity musts (open capital, floating rates, independent central bank) is what makes reserve when it's unintended structural outcome from failed gold peg.
Now we see hints of end stage USD reserve behavior, debt snow balls and reserve controller will pull the our dollar, your problem card. This US doing current conniptions trying to either reduce USD strength or inflate away debt... costly instability. People forget, liquidity / storage only matters to sovereign buyers who needs reserve for utility... everyone else (now plurality) are private buyers who buy for returns. If we enter end of dollar cycle and USD reserve cost them money, then they go elsewhere
Elsewhere is what PRC wants to offer, HIGHLY CONTROLLED, BUT STABLE reserve pegged to PRC industrial chains, i.e. real economy instead of speculative financialization. This what recent yuan reserve talk is from (note it was old Xi speech republished in Qiushi), so the propose model isn't even in response to current USD conniptions but prediction on end life of US behavior when USD reserve goes from exorbitant privilege to just exorbitant.
It's precisely because logical outcome of current reserve "musts", i.e. triffin charity/global good that makes it ultimately a stupid arrangement where the system breaks when US/owner can't afford to maintain or develops bad habits (deficit spending). Hence, what PRC plans to offer in parallel: stable regulated reserves for "real economy" financial utility. Stable Yuan "bank" reserve can coexist with volatile USD "casino" reserve. Now of course this all heterodox theory, but we are seeing theory of USD reserve limits peaking it's head, and PRC not retarded enough to pickup triffin baton. IMO PRC fine with US dealing with triffin headache and IMO betting US will fuck global creditors when shit hits fan, i.e. they waiting for USD reserve to implode due to inherent contradictions, to show world precisely why yuan reserve not modelled to repeat same mistake.
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