It’s also silly to try predicting the future 5 years from now, IMO. Historically progress is very unpredictable. It often plateaus when you least expect it.
It’s good to be cautious and not in denial, but i usually ignore people who talk so authoritatively about the future. It’s just a waste of time. Everyone thinks they are right.
My recommendation is have a very generous emergency fund and do your best to be effective at work. That’s the only thing you can control and the only thing that matters.
What would things look like to make someone with currently ~10 years of experience unemployable?
It's possible the job might change drastically, but I'm struggling to think of any scenario that doesn't also put most white collar professions out of work alongside me, and I don't think that's worth worrying about
Unemployable is a charged word. A lot of outdated professions still have professionals. There are still professional horse drawn carriages.
If the AI performance gains are 50% improvement, and companies decide they rather cut costs and pocket the difference, could be due to many factors, that leaves millions out of a job. And those performance gains are coming for many white collar jobs. I guess your premise is mass unemployment is not worth worrying about, so okay then.
Marginal changes in productivity can make huge impacts to industries employment rates.
It’s also silly to try predicting the future 5 years from now, IMO. Historically progress is very unpredictable. It often plateaus when you least expect it.
It’s good to be cautious and not in denial, but i usually ignore people who talk so authoritatively about the future. It’s just a waste of time. Everyone thinks they are right.
My recommendation is have a very generous emergency fund and do your best to be effective at work. That’s the only thing you can control and the only thing that matters.
Or just move into technical leadership or management/executive permissions.
In any case, everyone should be riding the AI wave! Anyone doing so should have enough to retire five years from now.
What would things look like to make someone with currently ~10 years of experience unemployable?
It's possible the job might change drastically, but I'm struggling to think of any scenario that doesn't also put most white collar professions out of work alongside me, and I don't think that's worth worrying about
Unemployable is a charged word. A lot of outdated professions still have professionals. There are still professional horse drawn carriages.
If the AI performance gains are 50% improvement, and companies decide they rather cut costs and pocket the difference, could be due to many factors, that leaves millions out of a job. And those performance gains are coming for many white collar jobs. I guess your premise is mass unemployment is not worth worrying about, so okay then.
Marginal changes in productivity can make huge impacts to industries employment rates.