Comment by ossa-ma
18 days ago
With all due respect to the author, this is a lot of words for not much substance. Rehashing the same thoughts everyone already thinks but not being bold enough to make a concrete prediction.
This is the time for bold predictions, you’ve just told us we’re in a crucible moment yet you end the article passively….
I have a theory: I think the recent advance in coding agent has shocked everyone. It's something of such unheard-of novelty that everyone thinks they've discovered something profound. Naturally, they all think they are the only ones in on it and feel the need to share. But in reality, it's already public knowledge, so they add no value. I've been in this trap many times in the last couple years.
Predictions
- Small companies using AI are going to kick the sh*t out of large companies that are slow to adapt.
- LLMs will penetrate more areas of our lives. Closer to the STTNG computer. They will be agents in the real life sense and possibly in the physical world as well (robots).
- ASICs will eat nVidia's lunch.
- We will see an explosion of software and we will also see more jobs for people who are able to maintain all this software (using AI tools). There is going to be a lot more custom software for very specific purposes.
> Small companies using AI are going to kick the sh*t out of large companies that are slow to adapt.
Big companies are sales machines and their products have been terrible for ages. Microsoft enjoys the top spot in software sales only due to their sales staff pushing impossible deals every year.
It's true the big company products have been terrible but they also enjoyed a moat that made it harder for competitors to enter.
With this moat reduced I think you'll find this approach doesn't work any more. The smaller companies will also hire the good sales people away.
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I also predict an explosion of work for qualified devs. And I predict there will be an undersupply of them.
Here is my bold prediction: 2026 is the year where companies start the lay offs.
2026 is the year where we all realise that we can be our own company and build the stuff in our dreams rather than the mundane crap we do at work.
Honestly I am optimistic about computing in general. Llms will open things up for novices and experts alike. We can move into I the fields where we can use our brain power... But all we need is enough memory and compute to control our destiny....
I don't know, its a bit of a hellscape in tech right now as thousands of people with deep domain knowledge and people knowledge and business knowledge (ie experienced engineers managers and product owners), were laid off by C Suites desperate to keep the AI funded mandates going
Do you know how hard it to make a successful company or even make money? Its like saying any actor can goto hollywood and be a star
VCs wont fund everyone
Nobody is sure of anything
Yes it is. But I am an optimist for human nature. I personally believe smaller companies doing different things is the future... Scaling as they need. It is a hellscape but people can and will adapt.
> Do you know how hard it to make a successful company or even make money?
Yes I have failed to do it before. I get this.
> VCs wont fund everyone
And? Do you need VCs? Economics mean that scale matters but what if we don't need it. What if we can make efficient startups with our own funding??
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>Here is my bold prediction: 2026 is the year where companies start the lay offs.
Start? Excuse moi
Yeah fair... But now it is different I.e. they won't regret it
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Except it started in 2023, we are in the middle of layoff waves.
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I'm human?
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