Comment by cal_dent

An interesting addendum is the relatively weak new job creation through the 2nd half of 2025 (partly geopolitcs, partly ai; through the mechanism of diverting capital to tech capex rather than labour).

The economy feels in a tricky position to me. The last couple of days have shown that there are many people/institutions primed to bail out of the stock market at the whiff of any negativity (or things perceived to be negative). I suspect there is likely more bad news before there's good news so the short term looks like it could be a bit of a roller-coaster.