Comment by dataflow
17 days ago
> Not only does this obviously not result in lower US prices, but it very possibly results in higher US prices
Here's the thing: yes, you may "very possibly" be right, but that means you may also "very possibly" be wrong. The truth is, we don't know, and we can't really trust the CEO of any business to openly admit that they could tolerate a policy disadvantageous to them. So how would you suggest testing the case where you're wrong?
There is no world in which an MFN clause does anything other than reduce the overall revenues to the pharma companies.
There is no world in which lower overall revenues does not reduce R&D spend.
There is no world in which lower R&D spend does not reduce the number and quality of new drugs.
This doesn't require trusting anyone about anything other than trusting that pharma companies are generally profit-seeking and therefore an MFN clause imposed by USG will create less optimal pricing (for the pharma companies' own incentives) than currently exists.
The exact price changes that happen in different localities that net out to "less revenue → less R&D → fewer drugs" is hard to predict, but the fact that it will be lower and it nets out to "less revenue → less R&D → fewer drugs" is absolutely predictable.
Please suggest an alternative outcome, if you can think of one.