Comment by baxtr
9 days ago
Look that’s the thing: we know about mass extinction events. So we can use these to extrapolate.
A 10+ kilometer wide asteroid will most likely cause global mass extinction, by blocking sunlight and collapsing ecosystems. That’s how the dinosaurs were wiped out 66 million years ago.
Such events are estimated to occur roughly once every 100-200 million years. That’s not fiction that’s science. If we get hit by one of these we’re probably gonna all die.
But we never had a robot revolution. That’s why anything about it belongs in the realm of fiction.
That's the whole point of the Turkey illusion. From the Turkey's point of view, it is safe and fed. It has never witnessed other Turkeys being killed, it has never been killed before.
If you are the turkey, it's difficult to predict your death and all the available evidence appears to support the hypothesis that you will not be suddenly slaughtered. If you are a very smart turkey, you might notice that the farmer is sharpening his knives the day before, and reach a strange hypothesis, but generally if you are the turkey, you don't know you are the turkey.
We are in a situation where we have never gone extinct before, never faced a threat like this before. It's difficult to know if we are in the same position as the turkey.
please refer to my other comment here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46974245
We think we know. But we don't.
Chickens think they know. But they don't.