Comment by _heimdall
8 days ago
Someone arguing that LLMs will keep improving may be putting too much weight behind expecting a trend to continue, but that wouldn't make them a gullible sucker.
I'd argue that LLMs have gotten noticeably better at certain tasks every 6-12 months for the last few years. The idea that we are at the exact point where that trend stops and they get no better seems harder to believe.
One recent link on HN said that they double in quality every 7 months. (Kind of like Moore's Law.) I wouldn't expect that to go forever! I will admit that AI images aren't putting in 6 fingers, and AI code generation suddenly has gotten a lot better for me since I got access to Claude.
I think we're at a point where the only thing we can reliably predict is that some kind of change will happen. (And that we'll laugh at the people who behave like AI is the 2nd coming of Jesus.)