Comment by modeless

He has been wrong about timelines and about what specific approaches would ultimately solve ARC-AGI 1 and 2. But he is hardly alone in that. I also won't argue if you call him smug. But he was right about a lot of things, including most importantly that scaling pretraining alone wouldn't break ARC-AGI. ARC-AGI is unique in that characteristic among reasoning benchmarks designed before GPT-3. He deserves a lot of credit for identifying the limitations of scaling pretraining before it even happened, in a precise enough way to construct a quantitative benchmark, even if not all of his other predictions were correct.