Comment by ineedasername

These days productivity at a macroeconomic scale is usually cited in something like GDP per hour worked.

Most recent BLS for the last quarter ‘25 was an annualized rate of 5.4%.

The historic annual average is around 2%.

It’s a bit early to draw a conclusion from this. Also it’s not an absolute measure. GDP per hour worked. So, to cut through any proxy factors or intermediating signals you’d really need to know how many hours were worked, which I don’t have to hand.

That said, in general macro sense, assuming hours worked does not decrease, productivity +% and gdp +% are two of the fundamental factors required for real world wage gains.

If you’re looking for signals in either direction on AI’s influence on the economy, these are #s to watch, among others. The Federal Reserve, the the Chair reports after each meeting, is (IMO) one of the most convenient places to get very fresh hard #s combined with cogent analysis and usually some q&a from the business press asking questions that are at least some of the ones I’d want to ask.

If you follow these fairly accessible speeches after meetings, you’ll occasionally see how lots of the things in them end up being thematic in lots of the stories that pop up here weeks or months later.