Comment by lelanthran

> AI will cause shortages in everything from GPUs to CPUs, RAM, storage, networking, fiber, etc because of real demand.

Real demand, sure, I agree, but maybe not retail or business demand; at the moment the "demand" is entirely VC demand.

It's a really distorted market which is to be expected in any bubble/hype phase. The current retail/business demand doesn't appear to exist at the price point these investments require - even at the low low cost of "free, gratis and for nothing", not enough consumers and businesses are signing up.

The ones really going all-in on AI are the slop-producers. I dunno if slop is enough to pay back the investment into AI - I mean, even the slop producers are going to realise that paying $200/m to produce something in 1/10th of the time is a race to the bottom because someone else on the same plan is going to do the same, but cheaper.

> The physical world can't keep up with AI progress. Hence, shortages.

I think the word "progress" is inaccurate there - the physical world supply product at the demand maintained by VC's money.

It's not "cannot keep up with progress", it's "cannot keep up with demand from VCs".

> The only durable moats will be compute, energy, and data.

That'll be a first :-) Physical commodities have never been moats on their own before.