Comment by zaphirplane
6 days ago
1 you are massively assuming less than linear improvement, even linear over 5 years puts LLM in different category
2 more efficient means need less people means redundancy means cycle of low demand
6 days ago
1 you are massively assuming less than linear improvement, even linear over 5 years puts LLM in different category
2 more efficient means need less people means redundancy means cycle of low demand
1 it has nothing to do with 'improvement'. You can improve it to be a little less susceptible to injection attacks but that's not the same as solving it. If only 0.1% of the time it wires all your money to a scammer, are you going to be satisfied with that level of "improvement"?
> You can improve it to be a little less susceptible to injection attacks
That’s exactly the point the rapid rate of improvement is far form slow polish in 10 years it will be everywhere doing everything
I think you missed the other half of the sentence. It's not converging on 'immune' no matter how fast it improves.
OK. Let's take what you've stated as a truth.
So where is the labor force replacement option on Anthropic's website? Dario isn't shy about these enormous claims of replacing humans. He's made the claim yet shows zero proof. But if Anthropic could replace anyone reliably, today why would they let you or I take that revenue? I mean they are the experts, right? The reality is these "improvements" metrics are built in sand. They mean nothing and are marketing. Show me any model replacing a receptionist today. Trivial, they say, yet they can't do it reliably. AND... It costs more at these subsidized prices.
Why is the bar replacing a receptionist ? At the low end It will take over tasks and companies will need less people, at the top end it will take over roles. What’s the point you are making, if it can’t do bla now it never will ?
Then define the bar. You're OK with all of these billionaires just saying "we're replacing people in 6-60 months" with no basis, no proof, no validation? So the onus is now on the people who challenge the statement?
Why is the bar not even lower you ask? Well I guess we could start with replacing lying, narcissistic CEOs.
LLMs haven't been improving for years.
Despite all the productizing and the benchmark gaming, fundamentally all we got is some low-hanging performance improvements (MoE and such).