Comment by fuzzfactor
3 hours ago
Pull back from the extremes a little bit and it's an excellent synopsis.
Keep in mind an off-white swan can be pretty bad too :)
The main thing about such uncommon or even unlkely events, is that nobody knows what to do about them.
I suspect it's all a moot point.
Prices of solar and battery are plummeting. If anything they are dropping faster than they were 5—10 years ago.
10 years from now I suspect the grid will largely be transitioning remaining fossil fuel base load to solar and wind backed with batteries, because the economics will be there to overbuild the solar and battery to the extent needed to provide reliable base load through the winter.