Comment by alt227
2 months ago
I assume this is a symptom of the wider ai hardware issue.
This is starting to feel a bit like universal paperclips to me, and we are on the verge of the next stage of industrialisation multiplication.
I guess its either quantum computing or the hypnodrones which will get us out of this mess one way or another...
More like China-factor to get us out of the mess. We wait for Huawei photonics gpus (end of this year), CXMT and YMTC ramping up production to flood the market or as Janet coined it overcapacity. You know China will undercut the price significantly.
China doesn't have enough to supply itself.
Neither does anyone else. Key difference being they planned for this 5 years ago instead of last quarter
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All these macro technology predictions feel very WW2 Wunderwaffe to me
Slinging doom and gloom on the internet seems like engagement-bait to me at this point. If the suppliers aren't increasing production, they clearly see something all these armchair doomers do not, I'm sure the prices will normalize back to "normal" levels sooner than people think.
AI bubble won't last forever when a lot of compute is burned at a loss just so people can generate AI videos of sharks driving cars for social media shorts. It will burst at some point, at which HW manufacturing will have to lower prices if they still want to have enough sales to stay in business, since most of their current sales boom comes from HW they haven't even made yet.
OpenAI can't keep losing investor money forever with nothing to show for, at some point the first domino will fall, then the rest of the industry will go too from investor panic.
Nothing has ever burst when production can't meet demand
It always bursts when demand stops. Current demand is artificially pumped up and financially unsustainable aka a bubble,
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The demand being: "trust me bro we will pay you when we're profitable"
All it'll take is one company to go bust, oracle for example, for the whole thing to deflate
Plus you're factually wrong, it happened for fiber optics and railroads
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I really don't think so. I feel like we're at a takeoff.
Senior engineers using AI coding are 10x more productive. My output has jumped dramatically. I'm a senior engineer and built six nines, active-active systems that moved billions of dollars a day. I am absolutely a beast with these models. I can replace an entire team just by myself. I'm literally shipping an entire week of features in half a day. I'm reviewing the code and planning the architecture - I am not dialing this in.
Video editors using video models can replace entire studio production departments. Writer-directors who know how to direct are essentially now Hollywood studios in their own right. I know a lot about this in particular because I've been making films as a hobby for 15+ years and work with a lot of industry professionals.
You'll see a lot of slop, but that's the same thing we got when we gave the masses cell phones with cameras attached to them. We still have plenty of amazing photographers in the world, and the means of creation are only getting cheaper/easier and the scope of creation for any individual is growing and growing and growing.
This is the next industrial revolution.
So prices will need to increase -- if it makes a senior engineer 10x more productive then coding assistants could easily cost 20x-100x more then what they cost today. Same for video generation.
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If you are able now to create 10 products instead of 1 in the same time frame you will have to plan, review and maintain 10 things instead of 1. How can this work? I mean to double your productivity is a huge jump but 10x sounds unsustainable.
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Yea but are you paying a profitable amount of money to your service provider for you to do it? I find it hard to believe that Anthropic is profiting off of my $100/mo subscription based on how active I keep my machines running.
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Video editors using video models can replace entire studio production departments. Writer-directors who know how to direct are essentially now Hollywood studios in their own right. I know a lot about this in particular because I've been making films as a hobby for 15+ years and work with a lot of industry professionals.
This is soul destroying. Literally made my day worse thinking about this.
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Do you get paid 10x? Does your company make 10x?
Nope, because the only companies making money on this bs are companies selling pickaxes and shovels
> I can replace an entire team just by myself. I'm literally shipping an entire week of features in half a day. I'm reviewing the code and planning the architecture - I am not dialing this in.
So you can review so much code so fast? Are you sure?
In many companies code reviews (properly) are the bottleneck. This was the case without AI. Now you're saying AI is giving you 10x more code reviews and you're even faster.
What am I missing?
p.s. I agree AI can make you and things faster just not suddenly god mode.
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The video models aren’t that good yet but for coding the utility is clear, yes. To be fair Darren Aronofsky also overestimates their quality.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but generating video is also much more resource intensive than equivalently productive text-only model use. It seems the industry could save itself a lot of hassle and infamy by simply avoiding artistic fields.
This is yet to be seen. Certainly feels like I'm more productive but I'm not seeing any faster results. It would be nice for this to be studied more.
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>Senior engineers using AI coding are 10x more productive.
Are the subscriptions of those engineers enough to make their use-case profitable and on top to also be subsidizing the cost of AI video slop generation and keep the company profitable?
>Video editors using video models can replace entire studio production departments.
Then why is OpenAI losing more an more money?
>This is the next industrial revolution.
I'm not saying it isn't, but we did have the .com bubble burst even though that was also revolution. Something can be a bubble and a revolution simultaneously. The internet didn't go away after the .com bubble burst, just the crazy speculations did, which is what I was saying will happen with the AI bauble. The bubble will burst and only the profit generating parts of AI will remain.
the dotcom bubble bursting didn't mean the internet wasn't an extremely valuable technology - still a bubble
> I'm thoroughly reviewing a week's worth of code in (less than) half a day
no you aren't lmfao
My compliments for the hypnodrones reference
Thankyou, I have played many games of Universal Paperclips as I imagine you have as well.
Releasing the Hypnodrones is always a very satisfying milestone.
Room temp superconductors for chips and robots!