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Comment by vdupras

2 months ago

Silver lining: can you imagine how dirt cheap RAM will be after that bubble has popped? Oh my...

RAM producers aren't adding more capacity on the non-HBM side of things, so we shouldn't see a dramatic drop in pricing if AI HBM memory demand drops.

  • If we end up with metric tons of unused HBM memory lying around, I'm sure that someone will design a general purpose computer using them, or design a HBM-to-DDR interface.

It won't. Demand is being pushed forward. That means that longer this situation take longer it will take for prices to recover to same levels.

  • If you delay your iPhone upgrade because of RAM prices, you're not going to buy two at once because you were delayed. So push, forward, push forward, sure, but to a point.

No manufacturer is increasing supply though. RAM, SSD, HDD - they just reallocated their existing supply to AI.