← Back to context

Comment by oblio

4 days ago

> Being a first mover doesn't guarantee getting to the golden goose, remember MySpace.

MySpace, ICQ, Altavista, Dropbox, Yahoo, BlackBerry, Xerox Alto, Altair 8800, CP/M, WordStar, VisiCalc, the list is very long.

22 comments

oblio

Reply
mercer  4 days ago

Hotmail is a good example too. I remember it being pretty ubiquitous, at least for the 'personal email' crowd, and it seemed implausible that people would give up on what was often their main email 'location' for another offering without being able to transfer their often important and personal stuff. then gmail came along.

  • hackinthebochs  3 days ago

    The internet and the surrounding context changed so fast that it made little sense to cling to old email addresses made in the old context. Gmail represented the 'new internet' and old patterns became obsolete (less subversive, more mainstream/corporate). When there's a seismic shift in usage patterns that's when all bets are off regarding where everyone lands. Being the first mover means little here. If the way people interacted with AI underwent a massive shift, OpenAI would likely get left behind. The only safe bet is to invent your own killer.

  • overgard  3 days ago

    Younger people might not realize or remember this, but when GMail came out it was HUGE. Like, I remember it was invite-only for a while and getting an invite was a really big deal. In retrospect that was some genius marketing by them (also just a way better product, at the time)

    Also switching email was a lot easier back then. Nowadays if you're using gmail as an auth provider it's very hard to completely abandon an inbox without a lot of friction. Back then all your logins were separate anyway.

  • FartyMcFarter  4 days ago

    Interesting point. I guess people liked the convenience of unlimited storage even more than they liked the convenience of keeping the same email address. In a way they traded one convenience for another.

  • prawn  3 days ago

    Beyond that too, I would think that many people view a Hotmail account as an indicator that you're backwards or not serious in business.

    I distinctly remember the shift to and then away from Altavista as well.

  • mister_mort  4 days ago

    Did Hotmail offer email redirection at that time? I can't remember whether that sort of thing that would make it easy to switch away was offered.

    • croon  3 days ago

      I don't remember that detail, but I do remember most people not treating their inbox as an archive at the time. So there was less friction to switch to gmail, and more reason to do so due to the "real time" ticking storage amount of gmail, which then became an archive (again for most people).

      1 reply →

shakow  4 days ago

VisiCalc, CP/M, BlackBerry and Yahoo definitely got a golden goose; it's long after establishing their dominance that they failed at maintaining it.

  • stingraycharles  4 days ago

    Isn’t that exactly what’s being discussed re: OpenAI? They seemed unstoppable a few years ago, but have lost quite a bit of reputation and their position of technical lead.

    • shakow  4 days ago

      What I mean is that the one I cited were first movers that actually found a golden goose, then got ousted years/decades later for various reasons.

      For now at least, OpenAI has not found a golden goose (i.e. made a lot of money) yet.

    • wickedsight  4 days ago

      > have lost quite a bit of reputation

      in the tech world, maybe. All my 'normie' friends are using ChatGPT though and have no concept of their reputation, nor intention of switching. Most people I know are hardly even aware of alternatives, even of Gemini, though everyone has a Google account.

      I personally also use ChatGPT and have zero reason not to, currently. I might switch if they royally mess up, but everything they've messed up has been fixed within a day.

      5 replies →

Lorkki  3 days ago

IBM owned literally the whole market on computers at a time when computing equipment was prohibitively expensive and centralised.

  • oblio  3 days ago

    IBM was a special case, I'm not sure there were many markets so thoroughly cornered like IT was for about 3 decades. I guess telephone (AT&T) was similar.

    • Lorkki  3 days ago

      I think there's similarity to the dynamic too. Not many instances have the means at this time to produce LLMs from scratch and operate them at scale.