Comment by apexalpha
16 hours ago
While I have no love for the Iranian regime I fear this will end up like the 'liberation' of Iraq: A massive power vacuum in an unstable Islamic regime.
What even is the plan here if the air assault fails? Boots on the ground? In Iran?
> While I have no love for the Iranian regime
Who say US is not regime? It is the world largest regime in the world, with bidders in every country to do their bidding, mass surveillance including their own country men. People blame only Russia, China, Iran etc when US have been doing the same for years.
Watch: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/w6_2Ul3Ght8
> Who say US is not regime?
Who says it isn't? Regime literally means a system of government [1].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regime#Usage
> Who say US is not regime?
Unless they edited, not GP. 2 things can be a regime at the same time.
I generally use 'regime' for autocratic governments.
Trump is democratically elected, for now.
I'm not actually sure if this is correct, English is not my native language.
Regime just means ruling system. Western media prefers to use it as a shorthand for autocratic governments so it gotten a bad conotation, but any ruling system can be described as a regime, regardless of if you like it or not. The organization you work at has a "regime"
> I generally use 'regime' for autocratic governments
Which is fine.
"In theory, the term need not imply anything about the particular government to which it relates, and most social scientists use it in a normative and neutral manner. The term, though, can be used in a political context. It is used colloquially by some, such as government officials, media journalists, and policy makers, when referring to governments that they believe are repressive, undemocratic, or illegitimate or simply do not square with the person’s own view of the world. Used in this context, the concept of regime communicates a sense of ideological or moral disapproval or political opposition" [1].
[1] https://www.britannica.com/topic/regime
There is no precise definition. English has many synonyms where the formal meaning is the same, but one is used pejoratively because it's acquired a bad association. Regime is like that, formally it just means the rule of a particular party or system. It can still be used neutrally if not denoting a government.
Iran also had elections, were they manipulated? I do not know. Were US people were manipulated using social media for elections. I do not know either.
> Trump is democratically elected, for now.
He was convicted felon before the election, I cannot believe that he won.
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What even is the plan here if the air assault fails? Boots on the ground? In Iran?
Other than nukes that would be the only option if they can blast the doors to the underground military cities. They will have to do it fast as the ships will not sustain combat for more than 5 days with their current ammo per the pentagon.
Why would warships only have ammo for 5 days??
Well in my opinion I would call that piss poor planning but I am just repeating what the pentagon said. For all I know this could be misdirection.
I don’t think it’s possible to change regime without boots on the ground which is not currently considered. So there will be no power vacuum, at most Iran military will be weaken. It’s not a big win for the US but would allow Trump to safe face after his demands were essentially rejected.
I imagine CIA political officers are on the ground right now.
Iraq was not an Islamic regime in the same sense. It was not a theocracy. There were non Muslims in senior political positions.
The Iraqi government was a lot more stable.
What exactly do you imagine will replace the Iranian government that is worse?
Iraq was attacking its neighbors every couple of years, Iran is not.
Iran has shown that it is remarkably sane actually, given the aggression shown towards it by Israel and the US and has made a lot of efforts to reach a deal.
Remember, it was the US that exited the JCPOA and now it wants Iran to give up all its misses so that they would be defenseless.
I have no love for theocracies, but I do think the Iranian system is a lot better than the likes of Saudi Arabia, which we're buddy buddy with.
Oh and I guess the founder of Syrian branch of AQ and deputy head of ISIS running Syria is better that what was before too, in your book?
Iran attacks its neighbors through proxies: Hizbollah, Houthis, Shiite militias, and Hamas. These groups are armed and funded by Iran.
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Iranian government massacres its own civilians whenever they dare to demand change. Iranians are also largely secular compared to citizens of most Arab states, and hate their government. They're also mostly Shia, which makes it hard for likes of ISIS and Al Qaeda to gain ground there, as Shias are enemies to Sunni extremists.
I believe there's a much better change of democracy / sane regime in Iran, than there ever was in Iraq and other Arab states.
Iran attacks through its proxies.
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>Iraq was attacking its neighbors every couple of years, Iran is not.
Nonsense. Iran has been stirring up trouble in the region for a long time.
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That all being said, we are talking about different cultures. Iranians are on average more educated than Iraqis were/are, and the country is ethnically more homogeneous.
So I have hope that they'll find a way to organize when the current regime falls.
And we’re mostly not religious at all.
We have Ramadan here now. No one cares. Arab influencer come and make videos and are shocked
Everyone eats and drinks during the days we don’t care
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Please provide sources when claiming such bold claims.
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>What exactly do you imagine will replace the Iranian government that is worse?
A regime that only controls the capital, leaving the rest of the country in a power vacuum leading to internal conflicts and sectarian violence that will eventually spill over the borders into Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iraq etc...
Nothing at all could be worse!
One of the issues with Iraq was that Rumsfeld didn't want to acknowledge that it takes more personnel post-toppling (to rebuild infrastructure and institutions) than during invasion. It seems like the current government could be prone to make the same mistake.
I recommend anyone interested in this to read Cobra II. It's an excellent book.
Was ISIS better or worse than Iran's government is now?
what are you talking about? Iran is a sophisticated country with a parliament and elections, with a powerful civil society. It has 90 million inhabitants. They graduated more women in STEM disciplines than the USA. Yes, it's a theocracy, but it's more free than Saudi Arabia for instance.
Are the Americans going to bomb the Saudis next? or only if Israel ask for it?
What exactly did I say that you disagree with?
Iraq’s Ba’ath party were secularists.
“ There were non Muslims in senior political positions.”
What are you talking about?
Iraq is >95% Muslim, but there are a few different sub groups. With those numbers there were few in government then and now who are not Muslim.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iraq
Its very much Muslim minority, but having even a few in senior government positions (e.g. Tariq Aziz, who was foreign minister) is an indication that its not a theocracy.
IT was a dictatorship, of course, but not a theocratic one.
No government and another perpetual war zone.
Your description of what happened in Iraq was exactly the point of why we invaded. Iraq and Iran were the two biggest threats to Israel, we got rid of Iraq and now we are removing the only other rival to Israel remaining in the Middle East.
After this, Israel, being the only nuclear power in the region and having massive funding from the American taxpayer, will dominate the entire region. This has always been the goal.
After this, Israel, being the most dangerous rogue state in the world and extremely divided internally, will likely devolve into civil war.
One hopes, anyway. That’s the best chance we have to remove the Nazis currently in power here.
There is virtually no chance they will start a civil war, they are an ethnostate and the majority of their citizens are wholly in favor of continuing to expand.
>In August 2025, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview with i24NEWS that he was on a "historic and spiritual mission" and that he is "very" attached to the vision of Greater Israel, which includes Palestinian areas and possibly also places that are part of Jordan, Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon.
>Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has suggested that Israel is destined to expand to include Jordan, and even beyond, to parts of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and even Iraq.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Israel
It is absolutely not a coincidence that most of the places mentioned in that list are also places that the US has been waging war for the past generation: Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq.
>Hillel Weiss, a professor at Bar-Ilan University, has promoted the "necessity" of rebuilding the Temple and of Jewish rule over Greater Israel.[44][45][46] Francesca Albanese and Amos Goldberg have said that an aim towards a Greater Israel is a factor during the Gaza genocide.[47][48] According to Yoav Di-Capua, one of the beliefs of the Hardal movement is "the obligation to retrieve the biblical land of Israel in its entirety as a pre-requisite for collective redemption which heralds the arrival of the Messiah"
They are driven to continue taking land in the middle east because they have a religious belief that their Messiah will arrive when they fulfill the prophecy.
After Iran falls - Turkey is next.
What does it mean "fail"?
What is the goal, to overthrow the regime, so success would mean a change of government?
(sorry, I haven't followed)
The plan is a show of power. Trump will leave in 2 years, leaving much of the world in disarray because he had no plan whatsoever, and his staff is literally out of the movie Idiocracy. Nothing of lasting value will come out of the horrors that happened in the past 3 years, and in 10 years we (the world) will look back into the present with disbelief.
> in 10 years we will look back into the present with disbelief.
You mean in 10 years, when the US is a stable and high-functioning democracy with independent media, a universally liked, charming, and polite president, supported by both the right and the left, who finally manage to overcome their minor differences? Is... is this the direction this is all heading?
Maybe the feeling will be "I can't believe I didn't get out of there while I still could".
> in 10 years we (the world) will look back into the present with disbelief.
This is a very optimistic outlook, to the point of naivete, though I really hope you are right. In reality, neither Trump nor his cronies are acting like people who imagine they will be out of power anytime soon. In 10 years the world will likely still be dealing with the fallout of this administration, if not still dealing with the administration itself.
I think both will be true. We'll be dealing with the fallout of this administration and dealing with his goons and cronies for decades while still looking back at this time in disbelief and wondering how we ever let it happen and what needs to change to prevent it in the future.
Hot take: Trump's denialism of 2020 and the use of '3rd term' is so that they can make a case that he can have a '4th term' -- that the will of the people to elect him overrides the constitutional limits of Presidency.
> Boots on the ground? In Iran?
Trump is a coward. He knows that boots on the ground will mean massive losses.
The only way he does that is if someone convinces him that they can go in and out very quickly.
Unlike Venezuela I doubt there are people in the right place to oust Khamenei.
Update
Turns out they bombed him
So replacing a fascist with western antagonism and constant threat on American allies, with a somewhat democratic, weak, and western aligned government?
Sounds like a good idea
It sounds like you believe that the people of Iran don't support the regime and are secretly loving america.
You can say the same thing for Iraq, but here we are.
This shows a real ignorance about the true culture of Iran. It is not a Muslim culture. They want to install the son of the shah, and get back to pre-revolution culture.
But liberals will be quick to tell them they don't know best, better to just keep the oppressive ayatollah in power.
Maybe this is correct? I want this to be correct. But American entanglements in the Middle East have often overestimated the size of the “they” you’re referring to. There are many “they’s” in Iran, some of whom have been trained over time to hate the US.
So like, I think this is the right choice, but Trump was elected by MAGA to avoid these kind of entanglements even when it was the right thing to do. In fact, I think “liberals” (not progressive) support this action more than many on the right.
Traditional left/right is not useful to understanding people’s support of our foreign policy in 2026 America. Tucker Carlson will hate this way more than Chuck Schumer.
The place has 90 million people, how do you even deal with this without throwing the whole place into chaos?
Besides, after this the collective west has no moral high-ground anymore, the global south will resent us more than ever. If other countries go to aggressive wars, our condemnation is worthless.
Trump is completely compromised and it was probably the powers that be who told them that this is how it is going to be.
Chaos could be the point. That is the Libya model.
> Besides, after this the collective west has no moral high-ground anymore
They never had any morals, all for their business gains look at Middle East, Africa and Asian countries where they were involved. Europe always looked other way when US does something and vise versa.
The moral peak of the west was siding with egypt against uk/france in the suez canal dispute. Its been downhill since then. Especially nam
There is no such thing as the "global south" other than in the minds of westerners and westernised elites (and elites are getting less westernised). From a western viewpoint you can lump the rest of the world together, but it makes no sense from any other view point.
As for moral high ground. Compared to whom? China? Russia? Myanmar?
China