Comment by helsinkiandrew
15 hours ago
Interestingly Kalshi has ‘banned’ insider trading, whilst polymarkets often tweets that some of their users must have inside information
https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-trading-violation-enforceme...
https://x.com/polymarketmoney/status/2001056273500954784?s=4...
Manifold actually explicitly encourages insider trading, arguing that it leads to more accurate pricing. This was possibly defensible back when it was a cute funtime project run by a Bay Area polycule, but it’s probably going to get them in deep shit sooner or later, even though they don’t even use real-money betting.
The SEC only exists for dad to frame people.
The vast majority of insider trading schemes are not prosecuted, many leave no evidence trail at all without going deep into black-op classified territory.
Prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC in the US.
Your point stands, for now at least, since the CFTC seems entirely uninterested in prosecuting or regulating.
1 reply →
Though Manifold only uses their non-withdrawable play currency Mana.