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Comment by gtowey

19 hours ago

The thing is you're still thinking of these insiders as someone who just got a juicy stock tip from a relative.

The much more serious problem is when these insiders actually have their hands on the levers which decide the outcome. It's really no different than a mobster who bets a bunch on money on an unlikely outcome then threatens one side to throw the match.

What possible economic benefit is there to society to allow ordinary people to bet in markets like that?

Would you really like to live in a world where "Will we nuke Iran?" Is a bet you can make? Then someone in government sees how much money they could make if they bet yes & push the button?

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gtowey

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tgsovlerkhgsel  17 hours ago

This is the entire idea behind the concept of "assassination markets" - "prediction" markets on assassinations that are just thinly veiled ways to crowdsource murders by taking bets that you expect to lose against an "insider" (the killer).

  • parpfish  16 hours ago

    It doesn’t need to be as high stakes as assassination. Any public figure could have a free-money loophole with all the stupid bets on things like whether a certain word would appear in a speech.

    If I were famous I could start a pool betting on whether I would post a picture of a my lunch this week. I could stake whichever side has the biggest payout and then just make it happen

    • slg  15 hours ago

      And we already have laws against this stuff when it is traditional gambling. For example, a couple MLB players[1] are currently facing 65 years in prison because they would occasionally waste a pitch at the directions of gamblers netting them a few thousand dollars each time they did it. For those not familiar with baseball, a starting pitcher generally throws between 80-100 pitches a game and a reliever throws roughly 10-30. This is basically as low stakes as a sports bet can get, so it makes it all the more attractive to attempt because it feels less like a compromising of morals with the less the participant actually needs to sacrifice.

      These prediction markets are now giving even more people the opportunity to make a small ethical compromise in exchange for non-trivial amounts of money without any of the potential legal repercussions of traditional markets or gambling. That type of ubiquitous corrupting influence can't be good for the health of society.

      [1] - https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/guardians-closer-emmanuel...