Comment by intended

No one has a clear idea about what’s going on, especially with AI. I’ve spoken to a glut of people at this point, consumed months of content from leaders to influencers and used it myself.

Currently Singularity fears, AI factories, Vibe coding productivity are super positioned with unthinking hallucinations, vibe disasters, ghost productivity and cognitive debt.

“Nothing changes in my life if GenAI disappears tomorrow” coexists with “I’m wildly productive and having the best time of my life.”

I’ve heard of negative productive gains, 15% faster search times, to 2x productivity and an increase in new project starts.

I think the bull case for AI is wrong, and I have not yet seen a process that will work with the quality and process control expected of assembly lines.

You hear hints of it, or major headlines, which don’t pan out.

Recently LLMs were used to generate financial models, and they looked like they worked.

Except they got the historical wrong and made mistakes humans would not.

Many claims do not survive scrutiny. Except for the new project starts.

The best analogy I can share for this moment is to talk about sketching or pottery.

AI gets a master, with the right workflow, to a rough sketch or rough state quickly.

Then the master has enough experience and skill to know if the foundations are solid, and what to discard to get to a final working vase.

Something that can actually hold water, doesn’t have holes in the back or a stem which is blocked, or is made of paper.