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Comment by muzani

3 days ago

A lot of people predicted all this. Check out Ray Dalio's analysis.

Empires rise because of resourcefulness, education, good work ethic and humanity, effective resource allocation (low corruption), high productivity. There's a snowball effect here. These countries become stable. Stability turns them into financial centers.

Then they get rich. There is no work ethic - cultural values reward consumption and not working, which tends to lead into things like colonization and slavery. The wealth gap increases. Wars overextend and become more cost than income.

To catch up with lowering productivity and the habit of war for wealth, there's more debts. They hit a point where it's not possible to pay debts, so printing money becomes excessive. Excessive printing causes them to be dropped as a reserve currency. The wealth gap causes internal conflict. There's more gatekeeping. Castes grow stronger (in modern times, it could be ivy league degrees, gender, and skin color).

All these conflicts and problems end up with weak leaders taking advantage of the situation. Eventually, it ends up in civil war or revolution/reformation.

That's the pattern of rise and decline. It's not chaotic but rather quite predictable.

Instability and poverty is the norm globally; the average person does not have disposable income. While Americans can afford to buy a car with cash lol. It's the US falling to the situation where they're similar to the rest of world. And place like China which are starting to feel things like disposable income and 40-hour work weeks.

I guess just adjust your expectations. The mismatch hurts sanity.

> Empires rise because of resourcefulness, education, good work ethic and humanity, effective resource allocation (low corruption), high productivity.

If you check the history books, it looks more like ruthlessness and amorality are more reliable predictors.