Comment by woeirua
6 days ago
I don’t get how you can see where we started three years ago and see where we are today and then _confidently_ say AI will not continue to improve.
It’s not about where we are today folks (the intercept of the line). It’s about the rate of progress (the slope of the line).
Similarly, I don't get how people can see the rate of progress and take it for granted that it'll maintain the same cadence, or even accelerate.
We went from the first airplane flight to walking on the moon in about 60 years. We had regular supersonic commercial flights shortly after. Applying the same logic, we should all be routinely flying to Pluto, travelling in flying cars like in the Jetsons, and commuting from Sydney to New York every day like it's nothing.
Is the line monotonic and continuously differentiable?
I agree with you that this article isn’t particularly convincing.