Comment by SlinkyOnStairs
20 hours ago
> Even a small % of layoffs of the US white collar work force will crash the economy, as our economy is extremely levered.
A major economic crash as the only consequence would be the good ending.
The real societal risk here is that software development is not just a field of primarily white men, it was one of the last few jobs that could reliably get one homeownership & an (upper) middle class life.
And the current US government is not, shall we say, the most liberal. There is a substantial risk that when forced with the financial destitution of being unemployed while your field is dying, people will radicalize.
It takes a good amount of moral integrity to be homeless under a bridge and still oppose the gestapo deporting the foreigners who have jobs you'd be qualified for. And once the deportations begin, I doubt they'll stop with only the H1Bs. The Trump admin's not exactly been subtle about their desire to undo naturalizations and even birthright citizenship.
I totally agree. I've written about this topic a lot on this site, probably most recently here:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47115597
The US is built on-top of a high value service economy. And what we're doing is allowing a couple companies to come in, devalue US service labor, and capture a small fraction of the prior value for themselves on top of models trained on copyrighted material without permission. Of course, to your point: things can get a lot worse than that. I honestly don't think a lot of executives even know how much they're shooting themselves in the foot because they seem unable to think beyond the first order.
I also see a lot of top 1% famous or semi-famous engineers totally ignoring the economic realities of this tech, people like: Carmack, Simon Willison, Mitchell Hashimoto, Steve Yegg, Salvatore Sanfilippo and others. They are blind to the suffering these technologies could cause even in the event it is temporary. Sure, it's fun, but weekend projects are irrelevant when people cannot put food on the table. It's been really something to watch them and a lot of my friends from FAANG totally ignore this side. It is why identity matters when people make arguments.
I also think I'm insulated partially from the likely initial waves of fallout here by nature of a lucky and successful career. I would love it if the influential engineers I mentioned above stopped acting like high modernists and started taking the social consequences of this technology seriously. They could change a lot more minds than I could. And they could ensure through that advocacy for labor that we see the happiest ending with respect to rolling out LLMs.
Unfortunately I don't really believe labor has much teeth anymore, and tech will wake up too late to do anything about it.
> I honestly don't think a lot of executives even know how much they're shooting themselves in the foot because they seem unable to think beyond the first order.
It's just so depressing. You see Microsoft and Google's CEOs being completely reckless with investment & the economy. And it's just ... HAVE THEY NOT LOOKED INTO A MIRROR? DO THEY NOT REALIZE THEY ARE THE FALL GUYS?!
Nevermind how the vast majority of major CEOs can't even run a business anymore. An old boys club of morons running the entire economy.
> And they could ensure through that advocacy for labor that we see the happiest ending with respect to rolling out LLMs.
It's just more of the same old "Software dev doesn't need unions". The top 1% always think they're pointless because they made it without unions.
> Unfortunately I don't really believe labor has much teeth anymore, and tech will wake up too late to do anything about it.
Amusingly, I hold the opposite sentiment.
Labor isn't going anywhere. These executives and managers can barely tie their own shoelaces. Big Tech and the current startup scene are laughably dysfunctional.
The moment the economic recession really starts to set in, everyone's gonna try to cut down their SaaS spending. Then, the days of being able to shit out some (AI or not) slop and charge double price will be well and truly over.
Once software firms have to compete on quality again, labor is going to be more important than ever.
AI may not even be meaningfully involved in software dev. To break even at the API prices would require charging on the order of 1-2 thousand dollars, per month, per seat. Factoring in long term training costs will will make that several times worse.
... Before we consider that we're probably heading into an oil crisis making energy and computer hardware much more expensive.
I doubt employers are going to pay the $10,000/month/seat required to make AI profitable for everyone in the supply chain. Certainly not during the worst recession this side of WWII.