Almost everywhere, the total fertility rate is well below replacement (which is around 2.1). UN estimates that say global population will peak around 2084; they assume global TFR increases back to 1.6, but there is no evidence for this assumption, so global population will likely peak sooner. Every first world country will be in population decline by 2050; some already are.
There's something about global civilization that's acting like a kind of human pesticide. People just aren't having kids, and this is getting worse, not better.
So it seems there is a median projection of mild decline way in the future. There are also reasonably probable scenarios that show no decline, or more precipitous decline. However, they generally agree that there will be at least 1 billion more people in the world, most likely 2 billion, and possibly more.
What is the real risk of the Earth eventually going back toward having 8 billion people after reaching 10 billion? Why is this "the exponential process one should be most concerned about today"?
Before the end of the century: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_population_projections
I'm talking about the entire world.
Almost everywhere, the total fertility rate is well below replacement (which is around 2.1). UN estimates that say global population will peak around 2084; they assume global TFR increases back to 1.6, but there is no evidence for this assumption, so global population will likely peak sooner. Every first world country will be in population decline by 2050; some already are.
There's something about global civilization that's acting like a kind of human pesticide. People just aren't having kids, and this is getting worse, not better.
So it seems there is a median projection of mild decline way in the future. There are also reasonably probable scenarios that show no decline, or more precipitous decline. However, they generally agree that there will be at least 1 billion more people in the world, most likely 2 billion, and possibly more.
What is the real risk of the Earth eventually going back toward having 8 billion people after reaching 10 billion? Why is this "the exponential process one should be most concerned about today"?
about 50-60 years iirc