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Comment by sam0x17

5 hours ago

I'm not even talking about the specific situation. The problem with prediction markets that has been talked about for months is the predictions themselves are being used as an indicator that "thing will happen" and eventually there is so much liquidity on certain markets that the market determines the outcome not the other way around

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sam0x17

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geor9e  5 hours ago

Do you have an example of polymarket betters changing the outcome of an event?

  • mitthrowaway2  5 hours ago

    Here's one:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/coinbase-ceos-bizarre-final...

    • sam0x17  4 hours ago

      > I'm not parent commenter, but any example of an event that actually matters? Elections, wars, the economy, healthcare systems, laws, court cases?

      I think the point is more that if it's already happening at this level of adoption, and these are only the ones we know about, surely there are many more where this is happening and we don't know, and as adoption increases, it will get worse and worse since the liquidity on the line will be much higher.

    • anonym29  4 hours ago

      I'm not parent commenter, but any example of an event that actually matters?

      Elections, wars, the economy, healthcare systems, laws, court cases?

      The example you provided does look like some insider trading type of stuff, just like how 1v1 professional sports players will sometimes intentionally lose after receiving a bribe to do so, but both your example and sports don't really seem to have any kind of meaningful impact on anything or anyone who isn't gambling, no?

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  • sam0x17  5 hours ago

    many many, like that stuff with the "will someone throw something at X basketball game" and then someone kept doing it, etc