Comment by gzread
10 hours ago
It does mean you probably shouldn't listen to them, because the expected value of listening to them is negative.
10 hours ago
It does mean you probably shouldn't listen to them, because the expected value of listening to them is negative.
It means I shouldn't listen to them in general. The LessWrongers are mainly wrong about things they think they understand: when they aren't overconfident, their improvisational skills tend to be decent. They were an excellent source of information about COVID-19, but they're a terrible source of information in the areas where they think they have expertise.
When there's a crisis, it's still worth checking in to see what the LessWrongers are saying about it, because it might be very useful, and it's pretty easy to tell: you just check whether it looks like they're doing science, or Rationalism™®, and only investigate further in the rare cases where it's the former.