If I propose odds based on survival tables for other companies of that age (I think for six years, the annual risk is 9 %), which side of the bet would you like to take?
The, uh, earnestness of your reply makes me suspect you missed the subtext.
We're not interested in expected value or winning the bet. If anything, it's the opposite: The "goal" is to lose the bet due to a situation caused by the pattern of betting, with something beyond any actuarial tables because it's not an independent event.
If I can presume to speak for up-thread commenters, we've agreed the system is inherently exploitable and harmful, and we're either (A) imagining the schadenfreude of using that same evil to harm the people who promote it, or at least (B) imagining them forced to fear the monster they're unleashing on others, so that they take steps to limit it.
How about something that they would see more as a genuine threat?
Bet on whether they get into a car accident, and then see what happens if all of a sudden that number starts spiking towards 100%.
Or whether the company will fail or have a bad IPO.
If I propose odds based on survival tables for other companies of that age (I think for six years, the annual risk is 9 %), which side of the bet would you like to take?
The, uh, earnestness of your reply makes me suspect you missed the subtext.
We're not interested in expected value or winning the bet. If anything, it's the opposite: The "goal" is to lose the bet due to a situation caused by the pattern of betting, with something beyond any actuarial tables because it's not an independent event.
If I can presume to speak for up-thread commenters, we've agreed the system is inherently exploitable and harmful, and we're either (A) imagining the schadenfreude of using that same evil to harm the people who promote it, or at least (B) imagining them forced to fear the monster they're unleashing on others, so that they take steps to limit it.
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If I propose odds based on US insurance life tables for people of their age and gender, which side of the bet would you like to take?
The over. Rich people live longer.
Even when there's a polymarket bet on their heads?
This comment is art