Comment by UncleMeat

More critical in my mind is investigating the "inevitably start to differ" option.

If two pieces of code use the same functionality by coincidence but could possibly evolve differently then don't refactor. Don't even refactor if this happens three, four, or five times. Because even if the code may be identical today the features are not actually identical.

But if you have two uses of code that actually semantically identical and will assuredly evolve together then go ahead and refactor to remove duplication.