Iran's South Pars Gas Field Is Attacked by Israel, Sending Energy Prices Soaring

4 days ago (nytimes.com)

This didn't have to happen. The world is less safe now because America loves bombing brown people more than it loves its own children.

  • Even better, the people who voted for this insist that this is what Kamala was going to do! Which is why they had to vote against her!

    We got a broken and incompetent government because tens of millions of dumbasses apparently don't understand that lies exist, and that the guy who lies to your face every day will lie to your face!

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    • A KGB spy and a CIA agent meet up in a bar for a friendly drink. "I have to admit, I'm always so impressed by Soviet propaganda. You really know how to get people worked up," the CIA agent says.

      "Thank you," the KGB says. "We do our best but truly, it's nothing compared to American propaganda. Your people believe everything your state media tells them."

      The CIA agent drops his drink in shock and disgust. "Thank you friend, but you must be confused... There's no propaganda in America."

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Israeli Defense Minister said earlier today that “Significant surprises are expected today across all arenas that will escalate the war to a new level.” And now they have targeted the world's largest gas field (shared with Qatar).

Iranians have said they would retaliate against oil fields and refineries in Israel and the Gulf. But since the majority of US air defenses have been diverted in defense of Israel it looks like the gulf arab states will bear the brunt of the retaliation. It looks like they have already successfully struck targets in Saudi Arabia[1] and Qatar[2].

This is the moral hazard in action as a result of unconditional support for the rogue-state that is Israel . Israel continues to escalate since they face little of the consequences - being under the US security umbrella. It is the rest of the world that pays the price instead (apart from Russia). In a sane world we would be changing this equation such as by pulling air defense, air support, lethal aid, air tankers support, EWACs, intelligence and satellite sharing, defense away from Israel. But the Trump administration and indeed the collective west seems to be under the chokehold of the Israel lobby.

[1] - https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2034348372346245584 (alt : https://xcancel.com/MenchOsint/status/2034348372346245584 )

[2] - https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2034340405060194649 (alt : https://xcancel.com/MenchOsint/status/2034340405060194649)

I'm not sure why the US has refrained from lasing these optical recon birds. Is it a fear of escalation? How many have to die before it happens?

Interesting, who purchases Iranian oil given the sanctions? Ostensibly it would be those that would see the price increases?

  • Those who were purchasing it need to go to the global market instead, increasing overall demand on that market

  • China buys 80% of Iran's shipped oil. But this affects the prices of pretty much anyone who imports oil - if China can't get oil from Iran, they'll purchase it from someone else. Less supply => higher prices for everyone.

    • It also affects China less, they have huge strategic reserve, and massive coal to petchem industry that only becomes economic after $80 barrel. AKA all other big industrial players are energy exporters who has pay spot price. High oil price = PRC competitive advantage on top of being able to brrrt EVs / batteries to displace oil.

  • Prices are about the future, not the present. Even if this didn't immediately effect anything, it could signal that other energy infrastructure is a potential target, or merely that the war is going to last longer.

  • China has been buying Iranian crude and gas for many years, mostly due to simply needing as much as they can get.

    The eleven tankers that have so far transited the Strait of Hormuz after the 3rd without being fired upon are all owned by, operated by and delivering to Chinese state-owned companies (AFAIK). The Iranians know they are transiting and are deliberately refraining from shooting, because of the Chinese information support, such as the Mizar-run near-realtime satellite geolocation of parked US aircraft and radars for attack.

    This bit I'm adding is speculation but the likely role of the Marine detachment aboard the USS Tripoli which is currently being sent to the Gulf of Oman is to start sinking these China-bound tankers so as to use the offer of not sinking them to coerce China into supporting the reopening of rhe Strait.

    • There's no need for Marines to sink tankers, an SSN in the Gulf of Oman would do that neatly and deniably.

      "You mean to tell me you've lost another tanker? Crazy. Anyway, about this intelligence you're sending Iran..."

      Most likely the Marines are heading for Kharg Island.

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  • > At what point do we collectively say enough is enough?

    I, too, am getting very tired of American leaders finding wars for Americans to die in.

    > I’m American and would absolutely support military action against Israel.

    Only took you one more sentence to find a new war for our people to die in.

    • Military inaction would be enough. Let Israel face the consequences of its actions alone. Don't give them a single dollar or a single weapon.

    • I am way more tired of American leaders killing children and innocent people than American soldiers.

  • Sorry but this is on the United States. Israel's government has been wanting a show down with Iran for a while but we've typically functioned as the adult in the room to keep the piece - obviously that changed with Biden and now Trump, but Americans own this one.

    • The US can share blame, but why should it bear the whole blame, esp since a large chunk of the American population doesn't want this war, whereas it appears that Israeli society largely does back it?