Comment by sph
2 days ago
> Wisdom of the crowd
I checked Polymarket towards the end of February for the odds of US bombing Iran and they were vanishingly low. IIRC most bets were aiming for summer 2026. YMMV.
2 days ago
> Wisdom of the crowd
I checked Polymarket towards the end of February for the odds of US bombing Iran and they were vanishingly low. IIRC most bets were aiming for summer 2026. YMMV.
There's a prisoners execution paradox here. If PM said there's a 95% chance, then Iran knows that too, and can prepare. Making them a worse target.