Comment by michaelt
9 hours ago
> Prediction markets are just fine IF they have some means of regulation against insider trading
Why?
If a prediction market is supposed to predict it makes no sense to exclude the best informed people. If I want to know the risk of a Boeing airliner crashing this year, Boeing insiders have much more to contribute than armchair observers.
And if a Boeing insider sabotages a plane to profit on a prediction market - that's illegal. If they're willing to break the law on sabotaging planes, they're surely also willing to break the law on insider trading at the same time. If we think this is a realistic risk, prediction markets should be banned entirely.
Only reason to exclude insiders is if the real purpose of a prediction market is recreational gambling.
I agree. Don't bar anyone.
But do require KYC on all customers and require their profiles and wagers to be public. The societal values of prediction market data would be an order of magnitude more valuable this way.
And use of illegal insider info would cease.