Comment by taeric

Even granting the idea that game theory can be applied successfully here; that does not really help with one-off events. Consider, knowing the odds of a coin flip does not grant you any real help in knowing what the next coin flip will be.

This is also ignoring that game theory of partisan games breaks if any of the participants knows what the other will do. Is one of the more famous ideas.

To that end, if you want to predict what someone will do, more often than not you are best looking at their experience doing said thing.