Comment by AnthonyMouse

> But you don't know exactly what would happen. You know what you will do, but not how it will affect the company's stock price. Maybe it will go down a little, maybe it will go down a lot. Maybe you kill the CEO on the same day as good news is published about the company, which offsets the drop.

You never know exactly what would happen. You know what you will do, but not if the CEO is going to catch the flu and not show up that day, or have better security than you were expecting, or have a great surgeon, or a spouse who is willing to keep them on life support until after your prediction market contract expires.

> Yes, but they are expensive, is my point.

Only they're not. There are many ways to bet all or nothing on something people generally expect to have a <1% chance of happening, so that you either lose $1000 or make $100,000. Under normal circumstances you could make that bet 100 times in a row and lose $100,000 and the counterparty is happy to take all your money, but if you're able to do something to change the outcome yourself then it's different, which is why it's the same.