Comment by treebeard901
4 days ago
Artemis II is scheduled for re-entry to Earth on April 10th. That is when the heat shield issue will be the most dangerous.
If it fails and the mission fails with loss of life while knowing it went ahead despite the IG report about the heat shield... It might be the end of NASA.
Hopefully it will return safely.
> It might be the end of NASA
If idiots and emotions rein, maybe. Then the centre of gravity for space exploration correctly shifts to Musk and China.
For manned spaceflight, I'd say it already has. NASA itself has launched a grand total of one manned flight since July 2011. China has launched 14 and SpaceX has launched 20. Worse, the NASA vehicle is completely unsustainable. It was obsolete before it ever flew and it's so expensive that the mission launched yesterday likely costs more than the entire R&D cost of SpaceX's rocket and capsule. Probably China's too.
The problem is that the purpose of NASA's manned spaceflight program isn't to explore space. It's to make the President look good (and I'm not just talking about the current one here) and funnel money to contractors. In that respect it's doing quite well.
The center has already shifted to Musk, SpaceX is 83% of global lift capacity. Artemis is flying an obsolete rocket at insane cost, and higher risk.