Comment by golem14
4 months ago
I don't understand: is it illegal to buy transformers from China? It looks like they are building them like crazy, and are available for sale:
E.g., https://lindahongli.en.made-in-china.com/product/SAapQolWVUY...
That's in the ballpark of the Heathrow transformer that blew, I think.
I understand they will be not cheap, with tariffs and all, but nothing the Magnificent 7 or Heathrow could not afford.
It seems to me that (as the article points out) that production facilities are pretty old and production COULD be much more automated, and products improved if there was a will.
However, "Now those firms are seeing a rise in demand for transformers alongside the buildout of data centers for AI, but remain unsure if the trend will continue, says Gonzalez Isla. “Transformer companies aren’t going to open new plants only to shut it down after 10 years of business,” she says."
And THAT seems to be the crucial difference here between the transformer industry and, say, NVIDIA.
Standards/regulations that the transformers almost certainly don't meet, produced in factories that don't follow any standards or regulations, and then add in the cost and delay in shipping something like that.
Maybe.
https://evernewtransformer.com/pt/how-to-purchase-power-tran...
If I were to desperately need a power transformer, I'd consider going down this route in parallel to waiting for years for a "blessed" one.
China has the most sophisticated grid in the world, and is spending $100B a year on expanding and upgrading. They have a uniquely high share generated by renewables. It runs 800kV and will go higher after the upgrade. The first Small Modular Reactor will come online this year. If you think that’s all just being built in random factories without standards you’re very much mistaken.
China's energy generation mix is not uniquely high in renewables! Where on earth did you get that idea from? China has about the same % renewable generation as Australia, about 1/3rd. Brazil has 80%, Norway 90%, some have near 100%.
What China does have is a very high carbon emission intensity of electricity generation thanks to over half capacity coming from coal.
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And yet somehow the biggest electric grid in the world is running on them just fine.